Diplomat Matthew Bryza: "Trump is becoming useful idiot in Putin’s hands"

We see what is happening in the United States right now. We heard Vice President Vance speak in Munich. We have read Trump's tweets, and we watched the meeting between American and Russian representatives in Riyadh. It is enough to make our hair stand on end. Who is Mr. Trump? What does he want?

Mr. Trump is clearly someone who does not understand history and is not interested in it, and the same goes for Vice President J.D. Vance. If they did, they would never have given a speech like the one J.D. Vance delivered, claiming that Europe's biggest danger is not Russia or China but lies within Europe. They would never have made such a statement in Munich because that speech was an act of appeasement. Trump's tweets or statements on X also amount to appeasement of Russian aggression.  

Mr. Trump is, quite plainly, an appeaser. He is a real estate tycoon and someone utterly ignorant of history and of the vital role the transatlantic alliance has played in preventing countries like Ukraine, Poland, the Baltic states, and all of Eastern Europe from being occupied again by Russian aggression.  

Finally, as a businessman, he seems to be a pragmatist who not only disregards morality but also appears uninterested in understanding the fundamental strategic interests of the United States.

I wonder whether he has a fundamental strategy or if it shifts depending on his mood, what he hears, what the Russians have offered him, or what the Chinese might be able to offer him. We recognize how difficult a situation we may find ourselves in. President Trump has made his position strikingly clear, though it has not yet been fully articulated. He has called President Zelenskyy a de facto dictator and accused the Ukrainian authorities of large-scale embezzlement, lumping them together with the Biden administration.  

I cannot shake the feeling that Trump is searching for excuses, looking for the most extreme culprits. It seems likely that our country will be the scapegoat, allowing him to turn to American voters and say, “You see, I did everything I could, but Ukraine and its government are so corrupt that I have no choice but to impose sanctions not on Putin, but on Ukraine.” It may sound like a surreal scenario, but it is not beyond the realm of possibility.

I wouldn't go that far at this point. It is possible that Trump could impose sanctions on Ukraine, but I think his biggest concern, as you alluded to, is avoiding blame for any mistakes he makes or any setbacks or defeats he suffers. This is why he tried to steal the 2020 election and claimed that Biden was trying to do the same.  

He lost and was ashamed. He will lose in this attempt as well. There is no chance, zero chance in my opinion, that an agreement between Putin and Trump, along the lines of what we are starting to hear, would ever be accepted by Ukraine. And I think if Trump continues to push for such a terrible agreement, which would be disastrous not only for Ukraine but for the entire transatlantic community, Ukraine will keep fighting.  

From the estimates I heard today, Ukraine likely has enough weaponry and ammunition to continue fighting for at least six months without US assistance, and the Europeans will remain engaged and continue supporting Ukraine.  

So I think if we can de-escalate the situation and have Zelensky and Trump stop criticizing each other on X, although in my view President Zelensky needed to respond to Trump calling him a dictator and blaming Ukraine for the war, then it might help. If tensions calm down and Putin is clearly seen as the one prolonging the war while Zelensky signals readiness for real negotiations, there could be an opening.  

At some point, it is possible that Trump will blame Putin for manipulating him, manipulating Trump, when it becomes clear that Putin just wants to keep fighting. But in the short term, I think Trump will feel compelled to blame Zelensky, as you suggested, and distort the truth by claiming that Zelensky needs to be democratically elected even though he was and somehow portray him as a dictator.  

But I just don't think Trump will be able to sustain that argument for long because even some of his closest Republican allies in the Senate are saying no no no that is too far. Of course, Zelensky is not a dictator and of course, it is Putin who started the war not Zelensky. So there is a limit to the absurdity of what Trump has set in motion.

Please share your thoughts on what took place in Riyadh. The United States and Russian delegations spoke for more than four hours. We understand that the Russian side included representatives from the intelligence services, the Foreign Ministry led by Lavrov, and Mr. Kirill Dmitriev, who oversees macroeconomic projects and investments.  

It is worth noting that Kyiv rejected Trump's proposal to exploit mineral deposits in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Dmitriev put forward a Russian offer, inviting American entrepreneurs to tap into Russia's natural resources. It is clear that the Russians are now making proposals that major American business figures will find difficult to refuse. Could it be that Russia is attempting to secure the favor of the current United States administration, if not directly then through other means?

Yes, of course. And Dmitriev was the first to come out publicly, playing a sort of psychological game when interviewed by CNN on the day of the talks last Tuesday in Riyadh. He said, "No, no, no, Russia doesn’t want the sanctions to be lifted." 

That was an attempt, I think, to manipulate Trump's delegation psychologically and increase Russia’s demands by pretending that, once they heard Trump might want to lift the sanctions on Russia, they could shift their position. Then Dmitriev said, "Well, no, no, we don’t want the sanctions lifted. We want even more." 

His effort is part of a psychological game, the same one played by Ushakov, Lavrov, Putin himself, and the security services representatives. The goal is to make Trump believe that what Putin wants is good for business, meaning good for Trump and American business.  

But in reality, it benefits Russia, because what Russia truly wants is to lift sanctions on the only sector of its economy that has international potential – its natural resources sector. They are trying to persuade Trump that American companies will benefit, making it seem like a good deal for him. However, in truth, it is a way to rescue Russia’s economy from sanctions.  

And, of course, as you mentioned, Mr. Borkovskyi, it also serves as a distraction from Trump's demand, presented by his Treasury Secretary, Besent. Essentially, in a neo-colonial manner, the proposal would allow the U.S. to take control of 50% of Ukraine’s critical minerals and metals resources while securing 50% of the revenues from the remaining half of Ukraine’s minerals that wouldn’t be part of the deal.

As The Telegraph pointed out in an article earlier this week, those terms are even harsher than the ones imposed on Germany at the Versailles Conference and in the Versailles Treaty, which are conventionally thought to have devastated Germany’s economy and played a significant role in the rise of the Nazis. So Trump is demanding something that Ukraine could never agree to.  

And now, through Dmitriev, Russia has offered a counterproposal, saying, "Okay, the Ukrainians aren’t going to give you what you want, so we will. It will be good for your companies, and it will be good for ours."  

It is a complex psychological game, and Trump is nowhere near understanding how he is being manipulated.

We are witnessing the creation of an entirely new global order, driven by military and economic aggression, along with strategic pressure. Based on what United States Vice President Vance said in Munich, I am concerned that Trump envisions a strong alternative for the world, a new order that many in his circle are actively discussing. Unfortunately, in this geopolitical equation, the Russians could become key partners in advancing his vision.

I think it's the reverse. Putin is the one dreaming of the Cold War era order where Moscow and Washington determine much of world affairs. I think that’s what Putin really wants. I don’t think Trump has a clear concept in mind.  

Everyone I know who has worked directly with him has said the same thing. He has no ideology, no strategy, only self-interest and the belief that the world can be structured through business deals because in his view everyone has a price just like Trump himself. He either buys you or eventually gets bought. But for him there is no ideology. 

There is no concept of shared or common interests that have bound the transatlantic community together for the past 70 years since World War II, creating the most successful period of global peace among great powers during the most dangerous times. I don’t think he considers any of this. I believe he just thinks he needs to win by forcing peace.  

When we last spoke we discussed his inauguration, Mr. Borovskyi, and during that speech he said he was going to reach a peace agreement but that required Ukraine to be strong.  

Something has changed in recent weeks. A shift became evident about a week ago when Defense Secretary Hegseth, while in Europe likely in Brussels, publicly announced the concessions Russia wanted before negotiations even began. He stated that the US does not believe Ukraine can or should join NATO or that it will ever fully regain all of its territories seized by Russia.  

That announcement signaled that the previous Trump stance that Ukraine must be strong to negotiate a settlement had broken and changed.

Now he just wants to force what seems to be a capitulation on Ukraine at any cost which means a capitulation by him to Russia to make himself look good as a peacemaker without caring about shared values or considering the historical reality that we know. History has shown that if an aggressor like Putin is appeased as he was in Georgia in 2008 and in Crimea and Donbas in 2014 it only encourages further aggression.  

Now as Trump is appeasing him thanks to this latest Munich and the statements made in recent days it will only push Putin to go further to attack Moldova, possibly the Baltic States and attempt to dismantle NATO. I think Trump does not understand any of this. 

I don't believe Trump necessarily wants to work with Putin to divide up the world but Putin does want that and Trump does not realize it because he does not understand history.

There is a certain feeling that Putin will not negotiate; he will stick to his course, as we saw during the so-called Istanbul agreements. It is worth recalling what happened in 1944 and 1945, when United States President Franklin Roosevelt, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill, and Soviet leader Joseph Stalin attempted to shape the future of Central Europe, and how Roosevelt and Churchill sought to preserve Poland's sovereignty.  

Stalin was more cunning. He insisted that elections be held under his control, with the NKVD and Soviet troops overseeing the process, maintaining the appearance of Polish statehood while ensuring complete Soviet control. For some reason, Churchill and Roosevelt were forced to concede to Stalin.  

When we consider potential plans emerging from Riyadh, I fear that the Russians may try to sell Trump the same model that Stalin once forced Roosevelt and Churchill to accept.

That's my whole point. That’s what I said in my previous response and a couple of times during our discussion this evening. The great problem is that Donald Trump doesn't know anything about history and doesn't care. So he doesn't understand what Putin is actually trying to do. And as a proud Polish American, I know that history. 

I remember when I began my diplomatic career in Poland in 1989 and heard about Yalta every day from Poles who still felt betrayed. They spoke about Wanda Wasilewska and all those Polish communists. Trump not only doesn’t know about that, he doesn’t care. He doesn’t care at all about Ukraine.  

He doesn’t care about the Bloodlands or the tragedies experienced by Central and Eastern Europe. First, it was Hitler attacking Poland and Ukraine, not Russia but Ukraine. Ukraine suffered the most under Hitler. Then came the Soviet occupation and deportations during the Cold War era from Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and beyond, including Poland. Trump doesn’t know that history. He doesn’t care, and he is a useful idiot of Putin.

If you don't know history then you're going to repeat it. My favorite boss of all time, Ambassador Dan Fried, really helped me understand that even better. We spent a lot of time when I worked with him talking about the historical lessons that should inform US policy.  

To the great credit of President George W. Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, they truly valued history. After the initial naivety of trying to establish a strategic partnership with Russia, well the Russian reset policy was under Obama but earlier efforts were made, they reassessed their approach. After Bush famously said he saw Putin’s soul in Ljubljana they took a step back, reevaluated history, and developed a much different approach when Putin became more manipulative.  

Trump however does not know history which makes this a much more dangerous situation. My hope is that as a businessman who prides himself on being a genius at making deals he will eventually see that Putin’s deal is a disaster as Ukraine continues to fight and will become angry with Putin. However it is equally possible that Trump might instead become angry with Ukraine.

I would like to ask you to analyze all the risks and threats that may be embedded in the documents the Kremlin is preparing and will present for President Trump to sign – or more precisely, the documents that Trump will attempt to impose on Kyiv.

I don't think there is any concrete plan. I mean there are always briefing papers written down but as we discussed a few minutes ago Trump has dramatically changed his approach to Ukraine just in the last week.  

Before Hegseth made his announcement and before J. D. Vance gave his speech in Munich, Trump had been saying that the only way to end Russia's war in Ukraine was peace through strength and that Ukraine would have to be supported militarily.  

You might even remember that around the time of his inauguration he said okay I'm not in favor of Ukraine joining NATO but we have to sustain very significant military support to Ukraine so that in the future Russia will be deterred from attacking it again.  

And Keith Kellogg even though his initial proposal was not very attractive to Ukraine in other words freezing the battle lines where they are meaning Russia would retain control of significant Ukrainian territory and Ukraine would not join NATO still included security guarantees and an end to the fighting. Now even that seems to be too much for Trump to accept.  

Trump seems to want something different, something that imposes even greater costs on Ukraine.

What he seems to want is a way to essentially get money from Ukraine in return for the aid that the United States has provided. That is a radical departure from how even he had been conducting foreign policy, not to mention the history of US foreign policy in general. As I mentioned before, he has changed his approach drastically. I think he surprised his own team.  

He did not include Kellogg in the negotiating team with Putin, which, to me, symbolizes that the peace through strength approach championed by Kellogg, which was still the policy just a week ago, is no longer in place. I don't think there has been enough time to formulate a new strategy or any significant strategic papers.  

Putin will continue trying to get as much as he can from Trump. We know what Putin wants. He wants to eliminate Ukraine as a sovereign state, have NATO withdraw all US forces from the positions where they have been deployed since Russia's previous invasion of Ukraine in 2014, and push NATO forces out of the new member states that joined in the early 2000s.

So I think Putin will keep proposing these kinds of major concessions from the United States as long as Trump continues this new approach of blaming Ukraine for the war and trying to extract more financial gain from it. This is a new approach by Trump to foreign policy, but I don't think it is clearly formulated yet. Now is a critical moment for Republican senators, European allies, and Ukraine itself to persuade Trump that this strategy will never work. 

One last comment. Trump's approach to everything now is to be a disruptor. That was the one characterization of Trump I left out in your very first question. Trump wants to disrupt the rules everywhere to maximize his power.  

He has been saying in the United States that he is going to dismantle many government bureaucracies and fire many officials. Just earlier today, he claimed that only the US president and his attorney general have the legal authority to interpret US laws. That is not true. The Supreme Court has the ultimate authority. He is trying to weaken the US system at home to maximize his power.  

Now he seems to be attempting to dismantle the international system as well, seeking to increase his power and wealth in an approach that is nihilistic and aims to break everything. It is not a strategy. It is an approach based on nihilism, and Putin is exploiting it. As for what exactly Putin is proposing, we do not yet know. But we certainly know what Putin's ultimate goals are. That is obvious because he has told us.

If we consider the possibility that we in Kyiv reject a given scenario, will Trump respond with serious restrictions against Ukraine? The proposed scenario could be so dangerous for us that we may have no choice but to say to President Trump, "No, thank you."  

France and the United Kingdom are willing to provide financial assistance, but they are not prepared to engage in the fight or supply the kind of weapons needed to contain Russian aggression. Putin’s intentions are clear. He is ready to continue the war despite heavy personnel losses, as this aligns with Russian military tactics that have repeatedly proven effective in seizing territories and subjugating populations.

This has always been a Russian tactic. Human lives do not matter; they are expendable. As the old cliché attributed to Stalin goes, "The death of one person is a tragedy, the death of a million is a statistic."  

I believe Ukraine’s only path is to say no and reject any agreement that undermines its fundamental security, future prosperity, and the right to a good life.  

I think it would be wise for Ukraine to do this from the perspective of a strategic victim, a victim of history, a victim of naivety though without explicitly saying that about President Trump, and a nation that is not only legitimate but also proud and strong now suffering from Russian aggression.  

Rather than engaging in Trump’s rhetorical game of insults Ukraine should take the high road and say, "This is unfair. Of course, we cannot agree to this. It would mortgage our country’s future and stunt our growth. Our children and grandchildren will never have a prosperous life under these terms." Then Ukraine should work with European allies in a dignified manner.  

In a firm but quiet way Ukraine should make it clear that it will not become a colony of Russia. Ukraine must stand by its identity, its allies, and its right to fight for survival and dignity for as long as necessary. But it should do so in a way that upholds the moral and historical high ground.  

And then over time hope that Trump will see his strategy as a failure. As long as he feels the other side is giving in he will continue being aggressive just like Putin. But Trump backs off when he realizes he is losing and will change course.  

Look at the tariffs he said he would impose on Canada and China. When Justin Trudeau and Claudia Sheinbaum responded by announcing serious retaliatory tariffs against the United States and outlining how the US economy would suffer, Trump backed off. He is a consummate bully.  

So Ukraine should resist but in a dignified way in a way that demonstrates how unfair Trump’s demands are and how they would lead to a strategic disaster for everyone including the United States in the long run.