"Military conflict between U.S. and Russia": Portnykov on what Trump-Putin meeting could lead to

He shared this opinion on Espreso TV.

"If the meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin is unprepared, there will be no results. The U.S. president will have expectations, but if those expectations aren't met, then most likely, after this failed meeting, the U.S. and Russia won’t move toward Washington supporting Ukraine but toward direct confrontation. Specifically, toward a major conflict involving military force. Strictly speaking, under Trump’s presidency, a nuclear war between the U.S. and Russia is possible. However, this scenario depends on a series of missteps. It’s already clear that Volodymyr Zelenskyy made a critical mistake when he met with Putin in Paris. That wasn’t just his mistake — it was also Emmanuel Macron’s. The only one who understood the futility of that meeting was Angela Merkel. But even with her vast political experience and deep understanding of the dangers Putin poses, she couldn’t convince the overconfident men who walked straight into the tiger’s mouth," Portnykov said.

The journalist explained that Russia’s political elites are split into two factions. One insists on continuing the war, while the other believes a peace deal should be reached to lift sanctions and buy time to prepare for a new war against Ukraine.

"Right now, we’re watching a competition between American and Russian political elites. At the same time, Russia’s political elite is divided into two camps. One camp believes none of this matters — Russia should keep pushing forward, ignore Trump, take Ukraine, reach Uzhhorod, and then dictate terms to the West. In their view, this path would make Russia Europe’s political hegemon, and Putin could talk to Trump as a junior partner. The other camp fears that if the war continues and the U.S. doesn’t lift sanctions, Russia’s economy will eventually collapse. Their plan is to redirect the military-industrial complex — after three years of war — to weapons exports and use those profits to finance new military buildup. In their view, a temporary peace deal would allow Russia to crush Ukraine in the next offensive. The reality is that before this war, Russia wasn’t ready — they didn’t plan for a prolonged conflict but expected a quick blitzkrieg," he added.

• On February 18, U.S. Secretary of State Mark Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov held nearly five hours of talks in Saudi Arabia’s capital. The Ukrainian president’s office responded to the discussions.
• After the meeting, Rubio stated that to end the war in Ukraine, all parties must make concessions, but those concessions shouldn’t be predetermined.
• Later, he added that a possible meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin "will largely depend on whether we can make any progress in ending the war in Ukraine."
• Trump stated that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wasn’t invited to the Saudi Arabia meeting because "it wasn’t a priority."
• On February 22, Trump announced that Washington and Moscow would resume talks in the UAE on February 25, claiming that "Russia wants to make a deal."