Ukraine is giving Europe chance to prove itself again

Each side perceives different potential dangers. At the last conference, the discussions, both public and private, were focused on Putin. This time, however, the spotlight shifted to Trump.

This is a unique phenomenon. Europe seems more frightened of Trump than of Putin. This is primarily because Europe delayed action, preferring to focus on enjoying life rather than addressing pressing concerns. The reasons for this are well-known. However, Europe always believed that, if necessary, the U.S. would provide protection.

Can we blame Trump for demanding that those who benefit from security contribute to its cost? It seems that a list of measures should have been implemented by Europe long before now, possibly during the first term of the new or old U.S. president. But in 2020, the Democrats came to power, and Europe again chose to avoid responsibility. As a result, Putin saw an opportunity and attacked Ukraine, assuming that Europe, well-fed and content, wouldn't take any drastic action to change the course of events.

For the past two years, we have witnessed the struggles of choosing between two options: drastically increasing defense spending or getting bogged down in debates over who should set the example for how this works, delaying obvious decisions. Last year, as the figure of Trump reappeared on the horizon, the most active started engaging in the political process related to coordinating support for Ukraine. However, actions remained minimal, and often, they were untimely. As a result, not only does Putin, but also Trump, now believe that there is no point in talking to Europe.

And now Ukraine is subjectivizing Europe, giving it a chance to manifest itself again. Part of the European leaders (not all) have understood this. 

However, we also need Europe—not just for military support, but to prevent a situation where, at the negotiation table, two monsters tear apart a third, weaker negotiator with fewer resources.

At this conference, we still didn't hear from the United States what price Russia will pay for its aggression. However, we heard that it may benefit. In other words, Russia might gain something—a prize it wants to formalize in the presence of Americans, as they aim to detach Russia from China and pursue a different worldview. The line of conflict for them certainly does not run through Ukraine.

This is why the "ghost of Afghanistan" was mentioned again, in a context that none of us Ukrainians would like.

But, as long as there are no agreements between the Americans and the Russians and until Ukraine makes no dramatic concessions, we still have time to "train" Europeans into a readiness to stand beside us. We need to convince them that there is no other chance for us (for all Europeans) to endure. There is no choice for Ukraine either—we must continue doing what we’ve been doing: daily repelling Russian army attacks, eliminating its oil refineries, and reducing the number of Russian troops.

God willing, by the next conference in Munich, joint defense mechanisms with European countries will be activated. That would be the best answer to the question of whether Europe has a place at the negotiating table or not.

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About the author. Viktor Shlinchak, Head of the Board of the Institute of World Policy.

The editorial staff does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.