ISW: Russia sets unrealistic deadlines and lacks combat power needed for large-scale offensive

This was reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The UK Ministry of Defence analyzed that Russia has been attempting to launch a major offensive operation to reach the Donetsk Oblast administrative borders since early January 2023 but had only been able to gain several hundred meters of territory per week.

The UK MoD attributed such a slow pace to Russian munitions shortages and a lack of maneuver units that are necessary for a successful and rapid offensive. 

At the same time it was emphasized that Russia is unlikely to build up the combat power necessary to substantially affect the outcome of the war while Russian military command continues to demand for unrealistic and sweeping advances.

“Russian leadership may be once again planning a decisive offensive based on erroneous assumptions about Russian military capabilities and likely lacks the combat power necessary to sustain more than one major offensive operation,” the Institute assessed.

Analysts also observed the Kremlin signaling preparations for an early 2023 offensive but assessed that the time and space relationship may hinder Russian rapid and large-scale advance aspirations as Ukraine heads into a muddy spring season unsuitable for maneuver warfare.

“The Russian nationalist information space is continuing to express worry over Russia’s inability to sustain a rapid and multi-pronged decisive offensive operation on a deadline,” experts emphasize. 

One russian milblogger warned that Russian forces should not fall into the trap of attempting to start numerous offensive operations like they did in spring 2022 but instead focus on gradual advances that would generate high casualties among Ukrainian forces.

Another milblogger stated that Russia still needs to create a breakthrough force and reject its current tactic of launching small, localized offensives that waste Russian combat on “capturing fields”, the Institute added.

• On February 5, Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov assured that Ukraine is ready for another large-scale Russian offensive in February. 

• On February 6, the British newspaper FT wrote that Russia intends to launch another large-scale offensive within the next 10 days to capture Donbas.

• On February 6, Reznikov stated that during a new large-scale offensive, the Russians could change their tactics and launch concentrated strikes in specific areas.

• The next day, ISW noted that the Russians were in a hurry to launch a new large-scale offensive to ensure that it would take place before heavy Western equipment arrived in Ukraine.