Putin may rethink war due to economic decline — ex-chief military prosecutor

Viktor Chumak, Ukraine’s former Chief Military Prosecutor (2019-2020), shared his opinions with Espreso TV.

"Probably, the Trump team sees the possible development of indirect conditions that could cause a pessimistic outlook in Russia regarding its economy. Six months, or maybe a bit more, could yield the consequences we've been talking about since 2022. Russia’s economy is not as enormous and monolithic as it may seem. If sanctions are properly implemented, including cutting off gas, oil, and the shadow fleet, this could give grounds to say that it might collapse. The threat of an economic collapse could push Putin to reconsider ending the war or halting it. After that, we should discuss certain guarantees, at least for a medium-term ceasefire. A quick and lasting peace with the Russians in the near future seems unlikely. Probably, that’s how it will unfold," he said.

It is clear that the new U.S. administration wants to end the war and find a solution. This was evidenced by the recent statement by Kellogg, who said they are seeking to end the war within the first 100 days after the new president's inauguration. However, there are big questions about the end of the hot phase of the war, Chumak pointed out.

"I don’t see any preconditions suggesting that Russia is ready to stop the hot phase of the war. They are capturing certain territories and advancing on the front. As long as they have an advantage on the front and continue to press, there is no reason to stop. Additionally, Trump has slightly altered the world order agenda, with talks about the acquisition of Greenland, the Panama Canal, or annexing Canada to the United States. This creates chaos in the world, which pleases Putin and his allies, such as Beijing and Tehran. Therefore, there are no preconditions for a quick end to the war. I don’t see what the Trump team could offer Putin for a rapid end to the war. We will never agree to capitulation. Our European allies and the people of Ukraine would not support this," he added.

• Kyrylo Budanov, Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine, believes that Russia is still capable of continuing the war against Ukraine at the current scale.