Russian aviation – threat to NATO: Su-24 fleet, capabilities, losses

Ukraine's Viyskovyi Vishchun, an intelligence and analytical platform that collects and analyses data on the armies of the world, published a new research, trying to assess the following aspects:

• The real situation in the Russian Air Force and Navy aviation in terms of the condition of aircraft and the number of combat-ready aircraft
• Losses of aircraft by type since 2022
• Prospects, assessment of use in combat operations

In the first part of the study, the analysts looked at Russia's Su-24(M/MR) frontline bomber.

After World War II, the Soviet Union revamped its aviation approach, introducing new equipment and rapidly producing modern aircraft in the 1980s. After the Soviet collapse, Russia inherited a massive aircraft stock, taking 15 years to decommission outdated planes.

Russia inherited around 600 Su-24/Su-24M bombers and about 120 Su-24MRs. The Su-24M featured upgrades like the PNS-24M Tiger navigation system, improved countermeasures, and the Kaira-24M laser targeting system. It also had air refueling capabilities and has been produced since 1978.

The Su-24MR was a reconnaissance version of the Su-24M, with its strike avionics replaced by the BKP-1 Bagnet side-looking radar, Aist-M television reconnaissance equipment, Shpyl-2M laser reconnaissance, Zima infrared, and Tangazh radio reconnaissance systems. It also featured panoramic aerial cameras and radiation reconnaissance devices. The aircraft is equipped with R-60 missiles for self-defense. The first prototype flew in 1980.

According to some estimates, the Su-24 accounted for 16% of Russia's entire aviation inheritance from the Soviet Union. However, by that time, some aircraft were unfit for use or outdated, so they were sent for disposal at the so-called Aviation Equipment Storage Bases.

Russian airfield in the town of Chebenki in 2003, with more than 100 Su-24s in the photo, Photo: vishchun.com

On forums of former pilots, analysts found information about the disposal of at least 50 aircraft by the late 1990s.  

By 2016, all Su-24s "without the letter" were decommissioned due to their high accident rate (over 150 accidents).

Overall, the situation at the storage bases looks as follows:

Around 100 aircraft were in storage, with up to 100 more potentially placed in hangars (as of 2021).

Study of the existing Su-24 combat fleet

Overall, the situation at the storage bases looks as follows:

Around 100 aircraft were in storage, with up to 100 more potentially placed in hangars (as of 2021).

All data was taken from open sources and does not include the Russian base of Khmeimim.

In total, 135-140 aircraft were in service.

As for the existing fleet, the analysts found the following on satellite images: there were 120-133 aircraft. In total, including  storage bases, there were 161 aircraft. In fact, about 30% were not combat-ready.

Losses and the situation after 2022

At the beginning of the invasion, the Russian military grouping of Su-24 bombers typically included up to 50 Su-24M bombers, with at least two of them being used in the assault on Kyiv. It should also be noted that the grouping primarily consisted of aircraft that were already stationed near Ukrainian borders before the Russian troop redeployment in late 2021 and early 2022.

These bombers suffered their first confirmed losses in mid-2022:

On August 9, four Su-24M/MR bombers were destroyed and two were damaged at the Saki airbase in Novofedorivka, Crimea, during an airstrike by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. These bombers had been used in the Tavriysk and Crimean Operational Regions.

After 2022, the Russians used Su-24Ms mainly only in the Donetsk direction, where they conduct offensives.

As of September 2023, the situation with the aircraft was as follows:

Siversk and Slobozhanskyi areas of operation:

• Lipetsk 2 Su-24s
• Buturlinovka 1 Su-24

Donetsk region's area of operation:

• Millerovo 3 Su-24
• Morozovsk 3 Su-24
• Marinovka 14 Su-24

Tavria and Crimean areas of operation:

• Saki 8 Su-24
• Hvardiyske 5 Su-24
• Eisk 4 Su-24s

It should also be added that at least 6 aircraft were transferred to the Wagner PMC in November 2022 from the 11th Air Regiment (Marinovka), and they subsequently suffered most of the combat losses:

• On December 2, 2022, a Russian Air Force Su-24M aircraft, registration RF-93798, code 48 blue, was shot down near Bakhmut, Donetsk region. Both crew members were killed - pilot Alexander Antonov and navigator Vladimir Nikishin. They worked for the Wagner PMC.
•  An Su-24M of the Russian Air Force, registration RF-92025, 48 blue (ex 21 white) of the 37th Mixed Aviation Regiment was shot down near the town of Soledar, Bakhmut district, Donetsk region. It is likely that the tailplane was moved from the crash site and dumped in Soledar, where it was filmed. The video was first published on November 6, 2023. The aircraft was probably shot down on December 3, 2022.
• On February 13, 2023, a Russian Su-24M aircraft, s/n RF-93799, code 45 blue, was damaged by a Piorun MANPADS strike over Bakhmut, Donetsk region. The crew (reportedly working for the Wagner PMC) managed to land the burning aircraft back at the base.
• On March 29, 2023, Ukrainian forces shot down a Russian Air Force jet (reportedly a Su-24) near Bakhmut, Donetsk region. At least one crew member, Fedor Popeliuk, did not survive. He worked for the Wagner PMC.

The last military loss of a Su-24M occurred on December 5, 2023, over the Black Sea near Snake Island. It is reported that the Patriot SAM system was used. Both crew members, including Captain Yevgeniy Baterin from the 37th Mixed Aviation Regiment, did not survive.

In total, confirmed aircraft losses amount to 10 Su-24s destroyed and 3 damaged.

As of the end of 2023, a total of 130 bombers (including storage bases) have been identified at airfields, which is a difference of 29 aircraft compared to pre-war numbers. As for the operational aircraft, the difference amounts to 22 units.

Usage during 2024-2025

Due to the stabilization of the front line, strengthening of air defense, and new capabilities emerging in Ukraine's armed forces, the use of the Su-24 as a frontline bomber has become unfeasible. This is mainly due to the range of its weapons and the need for the bomber to enter the range of Ukraine's air defense systems to deploy them.

It remains possible to inflict fire damage exclusively with missiles. 

In 2024, Russia used these aircraft, among other things, to conduct reconnaissance at the front and to detect Ukraine's naval drones in the Black Sea for their subsequent destruction.

During 2023-2024, the Russian aggressors conducted at least 70 reconnaissance flights.

Conclusion

In 2025, the Su-24 will perform a limited number of operations due to the reasons mentioned earlier. The Russians may attempt to adapt the Su-24 for using UMPC (such an option exists). 

According to analytical estimates, Russia has lost up to 20 Su-24 aircraft (based on satellite imagery), while OSINT suggests 10. 

The number of Su-24s in storage, around 100, allows for compensation of these losses. Due to significant losses of Su-34s, Russia has halted the rearming of its regiments with Su-24s. Full rearmament will take Russia about 7 years.