What does China want? To turn Russia into a vassal state and weaken US 

To be honest, I see no reason to hope that Xi will force Putin to end the war. Especially after the recent incident with the American drone in the Black Sea, which symbolically weakened the USA, not only Russia and Ukraine.

The weakening of the main strategic competitor, even if it is purely symbolic (and in international politics it is of special importance), is entirely in the interests of Beijing.

If the choice is between symbolically humiliating the US through Russia and resuming trade in grain and fertilizers with China and its allies in the Global South, Xi will likely opt to continue the war.

But, of course, he cunningly disguises this choice as a peacemaking step, and his support for Russia as neutrality.

The very visit to Moscow instead of Kyiv suggests that China is taking Russia's side in the diplomatic conflict. China has previously supported Russia in various UN votes, and now they will be seen posing for a photo with their geopolitical ally, who is essentially a vassal state. This will likely be how history views the situation.

“The very visit to Moscow instead of Kyiv suggests that China is taking Russia's side in the diplomatic conflict. China has previously supported Russia in various UN votes, and now they will be seen posing for a photo with their geopolitical ally, who is essentially a vassal state. This will likely be how history views the situation”

The first goal, vassalizing Russia, will be confirmed during the Moscow visit and bilateral document signing. The second goal, weakening the USA, will be implemented under the slogan "China won't allow the West to defeat its vassal."

Ukraine is not considered by China, which, like Russia, sees the USA as the main concern. Is Ukraine to blame for this? Maybe partly but mostly this is due to China's strategic vision. 

The probable scenario is as follows:

1. Xi ceremonially acknowledges Moscow's stance, which he already knows.

2. Xi hears (via phone) Kyiv's position and may suggest an in-person meeting with President Zelensky, such as in Budapest.

3. China extends an invitation to the Ukrainian and Russian presidents (or foreign ministers) to visit Beijing and sign a joint declaration on ceasefire and settlement principles.

4. Ukraine declines the offer, as it reinforces the status quo without restoring its territories or punishing the aggressor.

5. China feigns offense, accusing the West of prolonging the war and openly siding with Moscow, rallying the Global South behind it.

6. The campaign to weaken the West begins, with India's position becoming crucial.

7. Amidst the war in Ukraine, Russia seeks to recruit hundreds of thousands of new volunteers, aiming to arm them with China's assistance, while new Western weaponry and equipment continue to arrive in Ukraine.

I find the position of White House adviser on national security and defense, Jake Sullivan, surprising as he is calling on Beijing to engage in talks with Zelenskyy, without the use of forceful arguments on the battlefield. Such talks would merely be a political ritual without any real significance.

“President Biden's conversation with Xi Jinping before his visit to Moscow may have offered some hope before the meeting. If their previous meeting at the G20 summit in Indonesia had any effect on China and Russia, it was limited to tactical changes, such as reducing rhetoric on nuclear threats, rather than strategic changes”

President Biden's conversation with Xi Jinping before his visit to Moscow may have offered some hope before the meeting. If their previous meeting at the G20 summit in Indonesia had any effect on China and Russia, it was limited to tactical changes, such as reducing rhetoric on nuclear threats, rather than strategic changes.

The West's open display of weakness and fear of direct confrontation with Russia leads to strategic weakening of the West, starting with political and later economic implications. 

This mirrors the Chinese strategy, which aims to play the long game and exploit internal contradictions within Western democracies, much like Russia's long-standing approach.

The West and Ukraine, as part of it, have only one way to avoid a strategic defeat, and that is to defeat the Russian Federation on the battlefield this year, in 2023, through joint efforts. Instead of showing fear of escalation and direct confrontation, it is necessary to demonstrate firmness, determination, and courage by showing a display of force.

Source

About the author. Volodymyr Horbach, political analyst, expert on Ukraine’s foreign and domestic policy 

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.