Espreso. Global
OPINION

Russia aims for Finnish scenario, leading to Georgian outcome

26 December, 2024 Thursday
16:52

The Russians have outlined a basic scenario for negotiations: the so-called Finnish model, where Ukraine must legally agree to the annexation of its territories

client/title.list_title

Here is Lavrov's verbatim quote: "A ceasefire is a road to nowhere. We need final legal agreements that will establish all conditions for ensuring Russia's security and the legitimate security interests of our neighbors."

In other words, Russia will insist that Ukraine, in the presence of other countries, agree to the annexation of part of its territory.

Does Trump's team understand this? I believe they do. However, as far as I can tell, they currently lack a clear approach to negotiating with Russia. The issue is that the U.S. today has virtually no tools to influence Russia, aside from oil prices. But even that price is, for now, more of a wishful thinking than a reality.

I have repeatedly emphasized one important thing: resolving the peace formula without China is incredibly difficult. Therefore, it is worth paying attention not only to Kellogg's visit to Kyiv, which is unlikely to be groundbreaking. Equally important is observing U.S.-China relations and what actions the U.S. will take in this direction.

Finally, Russia's desire does not mean it will succeed. But we must remember: the Russians' goal is not just the Finnish scenario. More precisely, the Finnish scenario is only the first stage. The second stage is the Georgian scenario, which, by the way, is more alarming for Ukraine than Putin's initial demand.

Source

About the author. Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

The editors don't always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.

Tags:
Read also:
  • News
2024, Thursday
26 December
21:15
Exclusive
West made fatal mistake regarding Russia — diplomat Ohryzko
20:50
Putin considers Slovakia as negotiation platform for Ukraine war
20:33
Russia shells Sumy region, killing 59-year-old civilian
20:20
No assault on Kherson: enemy targets islands on Dnipro River instead
19:57
Russia's war claims lives of 143 artists and 94 journalists in Ukraine
19:35
Exclusive
Putin tasks Russian army to capture Kurakhove by New Year - General Malomuzh
19:11
Lukashenko suggests deploying 10 Oreshnik missiles in Belarus
18:49
Exclusive
Azerbaijani jet crash is caused by several factors: expert on Russian air defenses downing passenger plane
18:26
Japan allocates $1.2 billion for Ukraine's recovery projects
18:05
Aktau plane crash: Baku blames Russian missile for tragedy
17:46
Canada's political crisis in 2025: impact on Ukraine's support
17:20
Russia strikes hit Slatyne, Zolochiv in Kharkiv region: casualties reported
16:34
Thailand accepts Russia's invitation to become BRICS partner
16:17
Ukraine’s 2024 defense leaves Russia bleeding for minimal gains
15:54
Russia claims France proposed Ukraine war dialogue without Kyiv's involvement
15:35
Exclusive
Russia delays start of meaningful peace talks with Ukraine — political scientist
15:13
Russia's Pantsir air defense system
Russian air defense AI system linked to Azerbaijani plane crash
14:50
"Kremlin Mouthpieces": Ukraine unveils list of Russian propagandists and media managers
14:48
Updated
Eight injured in Russian drone attack on central market in Ukraine’s Nikopol
14:30
Biden targets Russian oil revenues to bolster Ukraine as presidency ends
14:15
Exclusive
Russia builds road near Ukraine’s Mariupol to hide military equipment movement - local official
13:54
Exclusive
Russia struggles as Kerch Strait tanker accident sparks daily fallout - Ukrainian Navy
13:37
Ukraine's Air Force strikes military-industrial facility in Russia's Rostov region
13:15
Sanctioned Russian ship unloads fuel into storage after failing to find buyer - media
12:55
Russia ready for ‘consultations on Ukraine’ with Trump administration, says FM
12:31
"How to hunt Ukrainian UAVs on live bait": Ukraine releases notes from North Korean soldier killed in Kursk
12:14
Russian commanders abandon bodies of fallen soldiers in Kherson assaults
11:51
Czech company secretly sends reactor equipment to Ukraine
11:32
Review
Russia is again testing NATO's borders: Serhiy Zgurets’ column
11:15
Exclusive
Russia attacks with small infantry units, rarely using equipment — Ukraine's Rubizh Brigade
10:54
217 clashes occur on Russian-Ukrainian front: Ukraine repel 57 attacks in Pokrovsk sector
10:30
Biden directs Pentagon to step up aid to Ukraine after Russia's Christmas attack
10:14
Russia claims UAV attack: debris hits facility in Volgograd, power outages sweep Belgorod
09:54
Ukrainian troops capture Egyptian citizen fighting for Russia in Toretsk sector
09:35
Russia loses over 780,000 soldiers since launching war in Ukraine
09:00
Interview
Benefits of Ukraine’s EU integration are obvious — these are tangible social and economic transformations. MEP Paulius Saudargas tells Espreso about prospects of Ukraine's accession to EU
2024, Wednesday
25 December
20:15
Japan to transfer $3 billion to Ukraine from frozen Russian assets
19:58
Azerbaijani plane crash may become problem for Putin – analyst
19:45
Russia seizes Novoolenivka, Storozheve in Donetsk region - DeepState
19:30
Exclusive
Expert explains U.S. aid options for Ukraine before Trump's inauguration
More news