Russia aims for Finnish scenario, leading to Georgian outcome

Here is Lavrov's verbatim quote: "A ceasefire is a road to nowhere. We need final legal agreements that will establish all conditions for ensuring Russia's security and the legitimate security interests of our neighbors."

In other words, Russia will insist that Ukraine, in the presence of other countries, agree to the annexation of part of its territory.

Does Trump's team understand this? I believe they do. However, as far as I can tell, they currently lack a clear approach to negotiating with Russia. The issue is that the U.S. today has virtually no tools to influence Russia, aside from oil prices. But even that price is, for now, more of a wishful thinking than a reality.

I have repeatedly emphasized one important thing: resolving the peace formula without China is incredibly difficult. Therefore, it is worth paying attention not only to Kellogg's visit to Kyiv, which is unlikely to be groundbreaking. Equally important is observing U.S.-China relations and what actions the U.S. will take in this direction.

Finally, Russia's desire does not mean it will succeed. But we must remember: the Russians' goal is not just the Finnish scenario. More precisely, the Finnish scenario is only the first stage. The second stage is the Georgian scenario, which, by the way, is more alarming for Ukraine than Putin's initial demand.

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About the author. Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

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