Ukraine’s 2024 defense leaves Russia bleeding for minimal gains

In 2024, Ukraine's Defense Forces primarily adopted a defensive strategy, refraining from significant offensive operations except for the campaign near Kursk. This approach aimed to deplete Russian resources rather than focus on holding territory. Despite this, a surge of panic-driven statements has emerged, but do they align with reality? 

According to military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko, this analysis explores the territorial losses of Ukraine in comparison to the heavy toll on Russian forces in 2022, 2023, and the incomplete 2024. While some argue that a complete picture requires full December data, the trends observed in the first half of the month suggest minimal deviation from annual figures.

Territorial and human losses in 2024  

As of November 2024, Russian forces occupied approximately 2,800 km² of Ukrainian territory. However, the cost to achieve this was extraordinary. Between January and November, Russian losses included:  

• Personnel: 382,120  
• Tanks: 3,486  
• Armored vehicles: 8,282  
• Artillery systems: 12,441  
• Transport vehicles: 19,177  

For every square kilometer gained, Russian forces paid heavily, averaging 136 soldiers, several armored units, and multiple pieces of heavy equipment. Although the intensity of combat varied across locations, the data highlights a steep price for modest territorial advances.

Comparison with 2022 and 2023  

In 2022, during the peak of Russia's invasion, around 64,732 km² of Ukrainian territory was seized—23 times more than in 2024. Yet, Russian casualties were far lower relative to the scale of their gains. By contrast, 2023 saw Russian forces take only 148 km² while Ukraine launched counteroffensives, with personnel losses still significant.

Key insights  

The defining characteristic of 2024’s campaign was the substantial depletion of Russian forces despite minimal territorial success. Unlike 2022 and 2023, Ukraine’s defensive approach caused unprecedented losses for the invading Russian troops, achieving the strategic goal of exhausting Russian resources. This depletion has forced Russia to rely heavily on external aid, such as weapons and manpower from North Korea.

While some in Ukraine view 2024’s defensive efforts as insufficient, the data underscores their effectiveness in undermining Russia's military capacity. Despite criticisms, the strategy hindered Russian advances and inflicted unsustainable losses, marking a turning point in the conflict.