Canada's political crisis in 2025: impact on Ukraine's support

Ukrainian Resurgam Telegram channel has analyzed the importance of Canadian political issues for Ukraine. 

Given Trudeau’s minority government and the internal dissent within his party, the likelihood of him retaining his position beyond the New Year is rapidly dwindling.

What does this mean for Ukraine?

Setting aside Trudeau’s domestic performance, the question arises: how does Canada’s political crisis affect its support for Ukraine?

While Canada ranks 5th-7th globally in aid to Ukraine, providing $8.5 billion (most through macro-financial assistance or direct funding), military support remains delayed or incomplete. This has fueled criticism from Canadian Conservatives, the opposition party poised to gain power in possible early elections.

Conservatives argue Canada is underperforming in military support and have pledged to increase weapons and resources for Ukraine. Pierre Poilievre, the Conservative leader, stated:

"If I become Prime Minister, I will provide more arms and resources to Ukraine. Additionally, we will expand energy supplies to Europe to reduce reliance on Moscow."

However, concerns remain about Conservative voters’ shifting attitudes. In 2024, 43% of their base believed Canada was doing too much for Ukraine, up from 19% in 2022.

The other key concerns are:

1. Conservative votes against aid: Conservatives recently opposed a $587 million military aid package for Ukraine, citing mismanagement by Trudeau’s government.
2. Trade agreement rejection: They also blocked the renewal of a free trade agreement with Ukraine over provisions related to carbon emissions quotas.

While Conservatives’ rhetoric remains pro-Ukrainian, their actions raise doubts. It’s unclear whether their current stance is purely electoral or if it signals a broader policy shift.

For now, despite criticism of Trudeau, his government’s track record suggests that Canada’s support for Ukraine might remain more consistent under his leadership than under the uncertain promises of his political rivals.