Ukraine’s forces engage 3 of 12 prepared brigades in counteroffensive, main battle ahead — Reuters

This is reported by Reuters.

According to foreign experts, the Ukrainian army has recaptured seven villages in the southeast but suffered significant losses in personnel and equipment. Polish military analyst Konrad Muzyka stated that only three out of the 12 brigades have been involved in the fighting in the southeast so far.

“My main concern five or six days into this main phase is that the progress appears to have stopped. The momentum that they built up over the first couple of days is essentially now gone and we don't know why this is,” he said. He also suggested that Ukraine may lose around 15% of its Bradleys and several Leopards.

After regaining control over Kherson and part of the Kharkiv region, Ukraine had planned this offensive against Russia for six months. They established twelve armored brigades, with nine of them receiving training and weapons from Western countries. Each brigade consists of approximately 3,500 to 4,000 soldiers. Additionally, the country has eight assault brigades comprising 40,000 conscripts from the Ministry of Internal Affairs.

Currently, the defense forces have launched attacks in two areas near Orikhove and Velyka Novosilka, which are 80 km away from the temporarily occupied Tokmak and Melitopol in the Zaporizhzhia region. These cities reportedly have strong Russian defenses.

Military analyst Jack Watling emphasized that it is premature to determine the success or failure of the offensive, as it is still too early to judge. He advised against making premature claims and assessments.

"On both sides, a lot of it's going to come down to attrition," said Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. "The risk for them (the Ukrainians) is that before they get to that (Russian) defensive line, they take too much attrition and it'll be too tough to breach it and exploit it."

Analysts primarily rely on satellite and photographic data to draw their conclusions.

• The Ukrainian counteroffensive began on June 4, and on the same day, the first villages in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions were liberated. The counteroffensive has seen more success on the southern front, but there have also been gains near Bakhmut.

• On June 13, the Russian army attempted to regain control over the previously liberated village of Makarivka in the Donetsk region, near the administrative border of Zaporizhzhia region.

• As of the morning of June 14, Andriy Kovaliov, a representative of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, highlighted that active fighting is ongoing in the areas of Makarivka, Novodanylivka, and Novopokrovka in the Berdyansk direction.

• On the same day, Captain Valery Prozapas from the 36th separate brigade of marines of the Armed Forces of Ukraine mentioned that intense combat operations are taking place in the Azov direction.