Russia will soon have second episode after Prigozhin's mutiny – bigger and tougher, Freedom battalion officer Ilienko says

Andriy Ilienko, an officer of the Freedom battalion of the National Guard, told Espreso.

"Prigozhin's mutiny showed that today the power in Russia is largely lying on the floor, and any well-organised group of armed people can take this power into their own hands. This situation has shown this very clearly. This is a collapse, a loss of legitimacy and controllability of processes," he said.

According to Ilienko, what is happening now is simply ridiculous.

"Putin is talking about the pilots, and it turns out that those who shot them down will just go away, no one is going to pursue them. It's great that they were shot down - I want them to be shot down a lot more, to have large-scale battles between the Wagner soldiers and the regular army of the Russian Federation who destroy themselves for as long as possible. Putin calls these pilots heroes and releases those who shot them down. You can imagine something like this in some kind of adequate reality - where there is a state, a law. This is turning into an absolute circus. It seems to me that there will be another action soon. I am sure that this will not end, but there will soon be a second episode, which will be much larger and tougher," the military man concluded.

The mutiny in Russia and the case against Prigozhin

The conflict between Wagner PMC financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Russian Ministry of Defence continued for several months, but the situation escalated sharply on the evening of 23 June.

Allegedly, Russian troops launched a missile attack on the Wagner base. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner PMC, announced a "march of justice" and stated that 25,000 mercenaries were heading to Moscow after the Russian leadership refused to hand over Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov.

On Saturday, June 24, in addition to Rostov-on-Don, where they initially gathered around the headquarters of the Southern Military District, the Wagner group also took control of Voronezh. Their convoys, which had diverted from the Ukrainian border, were moving towards Moscow. Military aircraft and artillery under Shoigu's control attempted to stop them. The units of Wagner PMC were last spotted in the Lipetsk region. In Moscow itself, defensive positions were established, trenches were dug, and all security forces were mobilized.

However, on the evening of June 24, the press service of the self-proclaimed President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, released a statement in which the head of the Wagner PMC stated that he was ready to stop the advance of his mercenaries' military convoys, which were already approaching Moscow, and to reach an agreement with the Kremlin. Prigozhin allegedly agreed on this during a conversation with Lukashenko.

Instead, Prigozhin announced that the Wagner group had stopped their advance and returned to their field camps before reaching 200 km from Moscow. He stated, "In a day, we covered a long distance, stopping only 200 km away from Moscow. During this time, no blood was shed. However, the moment may come when blood will be spilled. Therefore, taking full responsibility, we are turning our columns around and heading back to the field camps as planned."

Subsequently, Prigozhin and all his fighters left the headquarters of Russia's Southern Military District. Russian leader Vladimir Putin promised that Prigozhin would be able to go to Belarus, and Russia would close the criminal case against him.

Read more on the events here.

The deal reached through Lukashenko's mediation is likely to eliminate the Prigozhin-led Wagner PMC in its current form, although some elements of the organization may continue to exist under the Russian Defense Ministry, according to the Institute for the Study of War.

On June 26, Russian media reported that the leader of PMC Wagner remained under investigation in the case of organizing a coup in Russia, despite the Kremlin's statements about closing the case.

On the same day, Putin gave a speech in which he offered the Wagner PMC fighters three options for future actions: join the Russian Defense Forces, go to Belarus with other PMC members, or return to their families.

Meanwhile, Wagner leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, said that the main goal of the mutiny was "to prevent the destruction of the Wagner PMC, not to overthrow the government" and called it a "march of justice." He also claimed that the offensive on Moscow had stopped because the mercenaries "did not want to shed much blood."