Lukashenko deal reportedly strips Prigozhin of control over Wagner group — ISW

This is the opinion of the analysts of the Institute for the Study of War.

The deal, brokered by Lukashenko, is said to strip Prigozhin of control over the Wagner group in exchange for dropping criminal charges of rebellion and treason.

"The deal will, if executed as framed by Peskov, subordinate some portion of the Wagner Group under the Russian MoD, as Defense Minister Shoigu has long desired. However, it is unclear how the Kremlin will define Wagner personnel as having not participated in the rebellion, and Peskov’s announcement does not specify the fate of Wagner personnel who did participate, other than receiving a pardon," ISW emphasizes. 

What scenario Peskov and the Kremlin offer for the Wagner mercenaries 

The Russian authorities will close the criminal case against Prigozhin, as announced by Kremlin spokesperson Dmytro Peskov. Prigozhin will go to Belarus, and Lukashenko was thanked for helping reach an agreement to “prevent bloodshed”.

According to ISW, mercenaries might choose different options: signing contracts with the Ministry of Defense individually, returning to Russia (which could be risky for the Kremlin's internal security), going to Belarus, or being deployed abroad to support Wagner’s past operations in Africa or the Middle East.

It's uncertain if Wagner's forces will willingly cooperate with their integration into the Russian Defense Ministry, or if the Russian military will be willing to work alongside Wagner group personnel in the future. Putin's stance on Shoigu and Gerasimov is currently unclear, and Peskov clarified that any personnel changes are solely decided by Putin and were barely discussed during the negotiations.

Prigozhin's uprising revealed serious weaknesses in the Kremlin

The Kremlin now faces a profoundly unstable equilibrium. The deal reached by Lukashenko is a short-term fix, not a long-term solution, and Prigozhin's rebellion exposed serious weaknesses in the Kremlin and the Russian Defense Ministry. Suggestions that Prigozhin’s rebellion, the Kremlin’s response, and Lukashenko’s mediation were all staged by the Kremlin are absurd.

"The imagery of Putin appearing on national television to call for the end of an armed rebellion and warning of a repeat of the 1917 revolution – and then requiring mediation from a foreign leader to resolve the rebellion – will have a lasting impact. The rebellion exposed the weakness of the Russian security forces and demonstrated Putin’s inability to use his forces in a timely manner to repel an internal threat and further eroded his monopoly on force," ISW analysts emphasize.

The report notes that Prigozhin's mutiny demonstrated that Russian forces lacked reserves in many rear areas and almost certainly damaged Russian military morale in Ukraine, which Ukrainian forces could use to adjust attempts to break through Russian defenses.

• After the Russian leaders refused to hand over Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov as demanded by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the armed rebellion and owner of Wagner Private Military Company, his mercenaries initially headed towards Moscow. However, on the evening of June 24, Prigozhin announced that the Wagner had stopped moving and returned to their original positions before reaching a distance of 200 km from Moscow.

• The press service of Oleksandr Lukashenko shared a statement revealing that Wagner PMC leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, expressed willingness to halt the movement of his mercenaries' military columns, who were already en route to Moscow. Prigozhin agreed to seek an agreement with the Kremlin during his conversation with Lukashenko.