Russia likely warned U.S. about intercontinental missile launch to avoid NATO response. Serhiy Zgurets’ column

Intercontinental missile launch

Russia likely used an RS-26 "Rubezh" missile against Ukraine, which could potentially carry a nuclear payload. If this was indeed an intercontinental ballistic missile (the article was written prior to Russian leader Vladimir Putin's statement claiming that Russia had struck Dnipro with a new medium-range ballistic missile, "Oreshnik" - ed.), Russia would have been required to notify, particularly the United States, about the launch. The threat level of such a missile without prior warning would necessitate an appropriate response from NATO and the U.S. It is likely that Russia did notify about the missile launch, which explains why embassies did not react. While Russia likely refrained from disclosing the specific target, they may have indicated that the missile would not be directed at NATO territory. This could also explain the hysteria in international European media, which claim it was not an intercontinental ballistic missile, as the launch of a short-range missile does not require prior notification to the United States from Russia.

Dnipro attack

According to the Ukrainian Air Force Command, the intercontinental ballistic missile was launched from the Astrakhan region, specifically from the Kapustin Yar range, traditionally used by Russia and the Soviet Union to test various missile types. The range is located approximately 850 km from Ukraine's Dnipro, the city targeted in the attack.

The missile deployed six submunitions, characteristic of multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles commonly used in intercontinental ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads. Russia aimed at "Pivdenmash," a facility specializing in missile weapon development and production. However, the strikes hit an inactive boiler house, a residential building, a garage cooperative, and a rehabilitation center. Two people were injured in the attack.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that this was a new Russian missile. Its characteristics, including speed and altitude, align with those of an intercontinental ballistic missile. Investigations are ongoing, and missile fragments confirm Russia has not previously used it for strikes on Ukraine.

Global reactions

Foreign agencies such as Reuters, NBC, ABC News, and the BBC report that initial data does not confirm Russia's use of an intercontinental ballistic missile. This is a peculiar focus of the international media. Russia has taken another step in escalation, deploying a new type of missile weapon previously unused, with a warhead capable of being a nuclear weapon carrier. Ukraine endures these strikes, despite the need for European countries to provide maximum protection for the state.

Claims that it was not an intercontinental ballistic missile are merely casuistry. These assertions are based on the argument that an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) must have a range exceeding 5,500 km. Missiles with ranges between 500 km and 5,500 km are classified as short- or medium-range missiles. According to this classification, the "Rubezh" missile is considered medium-range. However, this missile was developed based on the "Yars" ICBM, which has a range of 11,000 km. The Russians created it by simply utilizing the first and third stages of the "Yars" missile and employing the same warhead, thereby producing a missile composed of intercontinental ballistic missile components. The first tests of this missile took place in 2012, with the "Rubezh" achieving a range of 5,580 km. Thus, even by these formal criteria, it can be considered an intercontinental ballistic missile.

The missile program was frozen and not further developed. The project was halted around 2018 or 2019, and the launches now involve stockpiles of missiles that remained in Russia. This missile does not have a functional conventional warhead, so Russia used mass-dimensional mock-ups of warheads, which, due to their significant kinetic energy, created visual effects during the strikes on Dnipro.

The warhead module is designed for nuclear payloads, making accuracy irrelevant. The substantial inaccuracy indicates the absence of an effective warhead for this missile. Russia likely conducted these launches to refine missile technology that had not been updated for a long time. On the other hand, it also serves as military-political pressure on Ukraine’s leadership and its partners, signaling Russia’s intent to escalate further.

The missile is not serially produced, and Russia has only a limited number left. However, these remaining missiles allow for their use in terrorist attacks on cities. The exact number of these missiles is unknown. Will Russia produce them in series? Unlikely, as they are made from "Yars" missile components, and a single facility cannot produce both types of missiles simultaneously. However, Russia will continue to use its remaining stock.

Storm Shadow against Russia

The Ukrainian Armed Forces struck Russia’s Kursk region using Storm Shadow missiles for the first time. At least 12 Storm Shadow missiles targeted a Russian command post, formally designated as a communication hub of the Russian army. According to one Telegram channel, the strikes eliminated at least 18 Russian servicemen, with 33 others wounded to varying degrees, including officers from two military districts. Among those reportedly present at the command post was Deputy Commander of the Leningrad Military District, General Solodchuk.

This marks the first effective use of Storm Shadow missiles on Russian territory. The operation was well-planned and executed as part of a complex mission utilizing intelligence assets. Such actions are likely to continue, demonstrating the effectiveness of combining long-range Western weapons with Ukraine’s intelligence capabilities.

Lviv Defense Cluster products

Nazariy Demchyshak, co-founder of the Lviv Defense Cluster and co-developer of electronic warfare systems, shared details about their unique features and what is currently being supplied to Ukraine's Security and Defense Forces.

"The Lviv Defense Cluster is a volunteer organization aimed at creating personal protective equipment. Initially, the cluster focused on protecting soldiers by producing fourth-class body armor, which we provided to servicemen at the start of the full-scale war. By May 2022, 85% of certified body armor in the inventory of Ukraine's Defense Forces was produced by our volunteer organization, the Lviv Defense Cluster. The next stage involved supplying personal protective equipment, including body armor for journalists, press members, as well as analog body armor for police officers and State Emergency Service personnel. Currently, our child evacuation vests, distinguishable by their orange color, are being used by the police for evacuations from frontline areas. We also developed body armor for medics working under fire, protecting from shrapnel during rescue operations after bombings. To date, we have equipped emergency medical personnel in all frontline areas with second-class body armor," he stated.

According to him, the organization was founded on enthusiasm. Manufacturers of personal protective equipment, activists from Ukraine, and specialists in ballistics and materials science joined the cluster. This collaboration resulted in a unified product that increased production from 100 units per week to 2,168 units per day. All produced items are provided to Ukraine's Defense Forces free of charge. In total, over 100,000 military-grade body armors have been manufactured, with additional types upgraded.

Some Сluster members also participate in other volunteer or business projects supplying equipment to Ukraine's Defense Forces. "For example, these include additional reinforcement components for machine guns, full personal protection kits, footwear for deminers that withstands stepping on anti-personnel mines, as well as neck protection and helmets. Some of our partners are also involved in producing specific types of weaponry," Demchyshak noted.

Starting from anti-radar protection to weapon systems, all enterprises now have the potential to increase their production capacities and output. Each stage of work and production of essential components could be scaled up at least threefold, Demchyshak believes.

"Not all components need to be increased in quantity. Russia adapts and has the capability to introduce new elements. It's crucial to support startups so they can test newly developed weapon prototypes and counter-drone measures. This will be a key factor, as Russia is a large country but lacks flexibility," he added.