Can Russia really collapse?

Here’s what Vladimir Putin has said on the matter:

"...For anyone politically literate, it's been clear for a long time that Chechnya’s independence wouldn’t stop with Chechnya alone. It would be used as a springboard for further attacks on Russia.

Aggression has already begun. Forces were gathered there to attack neighboring territories. For what? To defend Chechnya’s independence? Of course not. It was about seizing more land. If they’d taken Dagestan, the entire Caucasus would have fallen. That’s obvious. Dagestan, Ingushetia, and then further into the Volga region — Bashkortostan, Tatarstan. This is a direct path into the heart of the country." (V. Putin, 2000)

"As for whether we ‘feed’ someone or not, dissolve them or not — do the Russian people, whose interests you’ve mentioned, want the collapse of the Russian Federation? Would it still be Russia if it fell apart, a nation built as a multiethnic, multifaith state? Do you want to reduce us to Muscovy? Well, NATO would like that." (V. Putin, 2021)

These quotes make it clear that Putin has always viewed the collapse of the Russian Federation as a genuine threat.

On this point, he is arguably more realistic and candid than Western analysts, who keep insisting, almost like a mantra, that "the likelihood of Russia’s collapse is extremely low."

The reason for such insistence seems obvious: they consciously or subconsciously confuse what they don’t want to see happen with what is actually possible.

In this sense, it seems they could learn something from Putin.

Source

About the author. Oleksiy Panych, philosopher, member of the Ukrainian Center of the International PEN Club, blogger.

The editorial staff does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.