Ending war: fewer scenarios remain

1. Magical scenario

Something happens that miraculously saves us all. There are many terms for this phenomenon: black swan, Deus ex machina, a bolt from the blue.

For example, Trump and his entourage are so outraged by another massive missile and drone strike on Ukraine that we receive massive, unrestricted aid. At the same time, targeted sanctions collapse, for instance, the oil market, and supply routes for semiconductors to Russia are blocked.

In the fire, smoke, and hunger, Kremlin insiders poison (suffocate, cut - choose the appropriate term) Putin, and the Free World celebrates victory, flooding Ukraine with investments. Our leadership wisely invests in developing industries, turning our country into a regional leader.

I leave the assessment of the likelihood of this scenario to the readers.

2. Inertial scenario

This is the one that will happen if nothing changes and we continue as we are.

Trump and company propose a ceasefire to Putin.

In response, Putin insults and launches a missile-drone attack.

Zelenskyy, Yermak, and the office managers continue irritating the Western establishment, organizing peace summits and proclaiming resilience plans - "because, as all Telemarathon spectators and Telegram trash can readers know, it's the West's fault."

Trump demands further concessions from Ukraine for the sake of "ending the horrific bloodshed" (well, allow the Russian language and the Moscow Church, NATO isn’t necessary for you).

He also demands that European allies spend more on security and on supporting Ukraine.

The European diplomatic track is led by Yermak...

"Ukraine is forced to either desperately defend itself amid reduced aid, inefficient use of funds, delays in fortifications, mobilization, corruption, and production failures…"

...or accept humiliating terms that society will not understand, especially those who have fought.

What’s next? Study the history of the Weimar Republic.

It’s hard to even think about it.

But if we don’t want that, we must stray from the path leading to catastrophe.

There’s also Scenario 3: Mini-max

When a country is at war with a superior enemy, its resources are in disarray, and allies are uncertain, focus is essential.

Out of all possible courses of action, the one that leads to the optimal use of resources and capabilities should be chosen: minimizing one's own expenditures while inflicting maximum losses on the enemy.

Such problems are called mini-max.

These types of mini-max problems are solved by first-year students, but the current authorities were focused on something else during their first year.

What will take fewer resources:

• Training former showmen in the history of diplomacy, international protocol, high-level English, and business millionaire psychological techniques? Or directly bringing in someone who already possesses those qualities for negotiations?
• Assigning drone and EW production to mid-level officials and IT specialists, allowing them to try and fail - or holding a competition among ready-made projects, evaluating not political loyalty but the effectiveness of research samples?
• Enduring experiments in economic and tax policy management by office-bound scholars with experience working with currently wanted traitors - or removing obstacles to businesses' operations by listening to the advice of practitioners?

And such simple questions can be asked endlessly in any sphere. Correct answers to them will ensure a turn towards an optimal scenario.

But Ukraine is very far from this... and with each passing day, the inertia grows.

"The window of opportunity to positively surprise the world, to once again become the unquestionable "good guys" instead of eternally irritated beggars, is quickly closing."

And the leadership, which should be taking advantage of this window, continues to ignore the opportunities.

P.S. ... In 2019, for obvious reasons, the Pakistani (I think) animated film The Donkey King was quite popular.

The plot, while accurately depicting the anatomy of populists rising to power and starting their rule, ended with a happy ending.

Because the main character solved the main problem. For each area of governance, the most competent person was eventually appointed, not the one who best flattered. A National Unity Government that turned out to be successful.

However, this is a fairy tale. In harsh reality, the inertia scenario is gaining momentum...

Source

About the author. Rostyslav Pavlenko, Ukrainian politician, political scientist, political technologist, lecturer, Member of the Ukrainian Parliament in the IX convocation.

The editors don't always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.