Russia’s Kedr ballistic missile: new threat or just another Oreshnik?

According to Defense Express, the Russian missiles Kedr, Rubezh, and Oreshnik appear to be iterations of Soviet-era concepts first developed with systems like Temp-2S, Pioner, and Skorost.

Following the November 21 strike on Ukraine's Dnipro, conflicting reports emerged about the weapon used. Initial claims pointed to the RS-26 Rubezh, while later statements from Russian and Western sources mentioned Oreshnik and a medium-range variant of the RS-26. On November 22, Ukrainian intelligence identified the missile as the Kedr. These inconsistencies reflect the challenge of classifying such weapons and the scarcity of concrete information about their designs.

Kedr is reportedly a next-generation solid-fuel missile, under development by the Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology since 2023. It may serve as an evolution of the Yars system, designed for mobile ground and silo-based deployment. Speculation suggests it could incorporate hypersonic glide warheads like those on the Avangard and modular configurations to enable various range capabilities, from intercontinental to medium-range strikes.

Historical patterns in Russian missile development suggest Kedr is built on existing designs. The Moscow Institute's approach often involves reusing components across systems, as seen in the Pioner, Topol, and Yars. This iterative development could explain the operational readiness of Kedr after limited testing in 2023 and 2024. The recent Dnipro strike might have demonstrated a medium-range version of this modular system.

In essence, Kedr, Rubezh, and Oreshnik may represent updates to Soviet-era missile technology rather than entirely new designs.