Will Ukrainian soldiers replace American ones in Europe?

European leaders are now hotly debating what the security architecture in Europe should look like if Trump fulfils his promise and puts the security of Europe solely on the shoulders of Europeans. Europeans are also worried about the fact that there are not many armies in Europe that are capable of fighting. There are also few citizens who, after decades of comfortable living, have the will and desire to take up arms and defend their freedom.

This means that politicians will have to make unpopular decisions, such as returning to universal military conscription, which is already being discussed in France and Germany, or cutting social programmes and increasing military spending instead.

And this is where the question arises: who will fight for Europeans? There are not many more or less capable armies in Europe. These are certainly the British army (although it is not a member of the EU) and France. The undisputed leader in investing in its own security is Poland, which, at the current rate of army modernization, will have the most powerful ground army among EU members in a few years.

As for the rest of the European armies, there are only questions... And so it turns out that the Ukrainian army and Ukraine, if included in the European security system, can become one of the shields that will protect the old Europe from Russian expansion. Of course, not for nothing. It's for money (the Ukrainian army has to become professional) and for access to EU political decisions.

That is why the prospect of replacing American soldiers with Ukrainian ones is not a ‘Trump's fantasy’, nor is it just Ukraine's wish. The very logic of events and the EU's capabilities will encourage Europeans to involve Ukraine in the new European security architecture.

This process will be supported by the Americans, both because Trump promised it and because it will definitely increase Europeans' responsibility for their own security.

Recently, the West has even expressed the view that this could become part of a bargain with Russia — that when Putin demands a reduction of the Ukrainian army in possible ‘negotiations’, it could be suggested that this Ukrainian army should simply be located in the EU, away from Russia's borders, but in the event of a new war, it could quickly return home.

By the way, another country that will get a chance for new European integration is Turkey. It also has a capable army, so with the right diplomatic approaches, Turkish European integration could get a second wind.

Of course, the involvement of Ukrainians (and possibly even Turks) in the European security system may not be accepted in some EU countries. But here, Europeans will have to choose — either their own very unpopular decisions or inviting those who can protect them to European structures. I repeat — not for nothing. It is for money and political influence on the fate of the whole of Europe.

Source

About the author. Serhiy Taran, political scientist

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.