Ukraine should not expect new military aid packages from Trump administration — expert Zgurets

He shared this view on Espreso TV.

"Analysts have found that the economic value of U.S. aid to Ukraine has been exaggerated — by a factor of two. These figures matter, yet they don’t. They matter when the U.S. and Trump himself inflate the scale of assistance. And that’s precisely what draws criticism from European partners, who point out that, for example, last year, U.S. military aid figures were reported to be several billion higher than those from Europe," Zgurets explained.

He noted that some U.S.-provided weapons were indeed overvalued.

"When it comes to American weapons, there are nuances. Take Patriot missiles, for example — each modern missile costs over $4 million. Meanwhile, equipment transferred from U.S. Department of Defense reserves was priced based on decommissioned rates, though sometimes those figures were inflated for the American budget. Later, these recalculations created a financial reserve for aid to Ukraine, amounting to over $4 billion. As we can see, Trump doesn’t seem particularly concerned about this. But these financial figures still matter in negotiations," he said.

Zgurets stressed that Kyiv should not expect new aid packages from the Trump administration but noted that programs approved under Joe Biden are likely to continue.

"A new reality is taking shape. Europe needs to invest in real defense programs. Meanwhile, Ukraine must find effective ways to work with Europe and determine what parts of U.S. aid will remain. I believe long-term contracts and Biden-era programs will stay in place. But new aid from the Trump administration is not something to count on. However, existing Biden-era programs are unlikely to be halted," he added.

• On February 22, Polish President Andrzej Duda met with former U.S. President Donald Trump. After the meeting, he stated, "Without American support, Ukraine will not survive this war."
• On February 25, Serhiy Zgurets, director of the consulting firm Defense Express, noted that European weapons supplies have significantly increased while U.S. shipments continue.
• That same day, military expert and Defense Express editor-in-chief Oleh Katkov stated that major American arms manufacturers could influence Trump’s administration’s decision on supplying weapons to Ukraine.
• Also on February 25, reports indicated that without U.S. assistance, Ukraine could sustain its current combat operations until summer, after which Kyiv might face an ammunition shortage.