How many air defense systems do U.S. and Europe 'owe' Ukraine? Serhiy Zgurets' column

Russian air attacks

On the night of February 25, there was another Russian missile and drone attack on Ukraine. The Russian occupiers fired several cruise missiles and more than 200 Shaheds at Ukraine. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that 7 cruise missiles were fired from 4 Tu-95 bombers, 6 of which were shot down.

At 3 p.m., I had a conversation with people who are now examining the wreckage of these missiles. What is interesting is that 5 Kh-101 missiles were shot down over Zhytomyr region, these are 5 villages that I will not name. Indeed, the wreckage of as many as 5 missiles fell there. In particular, near the village of Skochyshche, one missile hit a private farm, which was fortunately without consequences.

The wreckage of these 5 missiles shows that they were all manufactured in the first quarter of 2025, i.e. in January and February. These are new missiles that are loaded directly from the assembly line onto bombers for attack operations. This indicates that, despite the seeming accumulation of cruise missiles, Russia is resorting to the assembly-line use of such means of attack.

As for drones, 213 drones were launched, of which 133 were shot down and 79 were lost. Currently, the effectiveness of air defense against drones is over 90%, but an important component is that the number of Shaheds used by the Russian army is increasing every day.

While at the beginning of 2024, 200 drones per week were more or less the norm, now more than 200 Shaheds are launched almost every night. In particular, just two days ago, on the night of February 23, Russia used 267 drones, half of which were either shot down or lost locally.

The growing number of drones requires mirror solutions, i.e., an increase in the number of means to shoot them down. And here the question arises that we need to look for options to destroy drones through countermeasures that are cheaper than the Russian-Iranian Shaheds.

Ukraine's air defense capabilities

This raises the question of the Ukrainian air defense capabilities. We know that President Zelenskyy repeatedly mentions at all meetings with our partners the need to fulfill his promises and deliver the air defense systems that were previously announced to Ukraine.

Yesterday, an interesting report was released by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), a London-based think tank, which summarized what our partners promised to supply us in the field of air defense and what they have not yet delivered. In general, it turns out that during 2022-2024, Ukraine received 24 complete batteries of various types from Europe and the United States.

When we talk about full batteries, these are structures that can independently perform combat missions to cover our facilities. In general, we are talking about long-, medium-, and short-range systems. I won't bore you with various figures, but I will highlight the most significant components.

First of all, we are talking about long-range systems that can shoot down ballistic missiles. We have two typical models - Patriot systems of American design and manufacture, as well as SAMP/T systems, which are a Franco-Italian development.

According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, we have received two SAMP/T systems from Italy. As for Patriot, we have 5 complete batteries. In addition, Germany and the Netherlands have supplied us with an additional 9 launchers to increase the ability of each battery to destroy enemy targets. However, two more Patriot batteries promised by the United States have not yet been delivered.

As for NASAMS, which are short-range systems, Ukraine is currently using a total of three complete batteries of these systems, which were supplied by the United States and partners from Canada. We also received 9 launchers in addition to the full NASAMS batteries. But 8 batteries and 10 launchers have not yet been delivered.

If we talk about what was promised and not delivered, we now have the following count: 18 complete batteries of various types have not been delivered, with 10 batteries coming from the United States, which includes two Patriot systems and eight NASAMS. I hope that the deliveries will be realized and Ukraine will receive what we desperately need on the battlefield.

Situation near Velyka Novosilka

Next, we will discuss what is happening not in the air, but on the ground, where important aspects of the confrontation with Russia are largely being resolved. Let's discuss the situation north of Velyka Novosilka, where the Russian forces are trying to put pressure on several fronts.

Serhiy Volkov, a serviceman with the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade named after Lieutenant General Marko Bezruchko, said that the situation north of Velyka Novosilka is difficult, with Russian attacks continuing from Novyi Komar towards Burlatske. The Russian troops are actively pushing forward, unfortunately, with little success. The map shows the directions of the occupiers' movement - Dniproenerhia and Burlatske, these are the two points where Russian soldiers are heading. They are moving through Novosilka and Novyi Komar, so Ukrainian defenders are trying to destroy the invaders on the approaches.

The serviceman noted that the Russian vehicles were moving in columns, which means that the enemy is conducting mechanized assaults, of course, with a large number of personnel. Unmanned aerial systems and artillery battalions with 155-mm shells are helping to restrain the occupiers' advance. It should be noted that remote mining and various engineering solutions help to destroy at least the equipment of the Russian army. But it is more difficult with the infantry of the occupying army, because, unfortunately, it is impossible to launch a hundred drones at the same time. The Russians are aware of this, so they manage to advance and capture Ukrainian strongholds with their manpower. In Novosilka, the Russians are amassing their assets, including unmanned systems and artillery. Therefore, Ukrainian units are working ahead of the curve, leaving the enemy to move with smaller forces.

Volkov noted that the Russian guided bombs are being used, but not as much as they were in Avdiivka, most likely because the Ukrainian air defense systems have reduced the use of these bombs. That is, one plane can fly in once every two days. As for the fiber-optic drones, during the battle for Velyka Novosilka, the occupiers increased the use of these drones many times over. It is currently impossible to suppress such enemy assets with electronic warfare, so they are destroyed exclusively by mechanical impact.

The military added that people, following the news about possible negotiations, listening to various experts, hope that there will be peace tomorrow and are in no hurry to join the ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. However, victory is forged on the frontline: in Velyka Novosilka, Pokrovsk, and many other places - all of these are Ukraine's negotiating position. And all this geopolitical talk demotivates people to join the Ukrainian army while our defenders continue to work.

To summarize Serhiy's words, I would say that we should not rely on geopolitics, we should do everything to make it easier for our guys at the front and help them with all the possibilities to hold our defense line.