Why Putin lost the U.S. election

1. Putin lost the U.S. election. He was betting on the 50/50 situation and the unrest in Washington.

2. Putin will attempt to delay negotiations, as he cannot discuss Ukraine while Ukrainian troops are in Kursk. Additionally, the current front-line situation will pressure him to stall.

He can stall by playing the fool and resorting to nuclear threats, as usual. Additionally, he believes that Trump owes him a favor, even if that’s not the case. This notion feeds into his “we were deceived” mindset.

3. What demands might Putin make in negotiations (which are still only theoretically possible)? A reduction of the army, a buffer zone, and the dismantling of missile forces. However, these are secondary demands, as his primary objective is to have sanctions lifted. With a high degree of probability, we can expect that certain sanctions may be eased. Based on this, there may be an opportunity for bargaining. The key will be choosing the right strategy.

4. Unfortunately, through indirect indications, we can say that the election campaign has already begun in the country (at least in the minds of many figures from various political camps). We are now entering a phase of widespread political infighting, with everyone against everyone. This has already partially started, but the most intense phase is likely to begin early next year. This could, in turn, coincide with the theoretically possible start of negotiations, which would undoubtedly weaken Ukraine's position.

Source

About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.