Air defense dilemma: can NATO deliver what Ukraine desperately needs?

According to Defense Express, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte responded to the call by Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha to provide Ukraine with at least 20 Hawk, NASAMS, and IRIS-T air defense systems to protect its critical infrastructure.

He emphasized that Ukraine's request was discussed in NATO, where efforts are being made to ensure Ukraine can counter Russian aggression, particularly to prevent Russia from "using winter as a weapon" by attacking Ukraine's critical infrastructure.

During his response about the provision of 20 additional air defense systems, Mark Rutte noted the limited availability of such systems in terms of production and stockpiles, emphasizing the need to set priorities. He mentioned that a clear agreement was reached on December 3 to prioritize aid to Ukraine and expressed confidence that allies would provide the necessary support in the coming days and weeks, according to the NATO Secretary General.

However, the reality might be somewhat different, as such systems are indeed in short supply among NATO countries. Dutchman Mark Rutte is well aware of this, given that the Netherlands, where he led the government for 14 years, is only now restoring a full-fledged ground-based air defense. The issue isn't even about funding -though purchasing NASAMS and NOMAD will cost around €1 billion - but rather the delivery timelines, with supplies expected only from 2028.

When it comes to urgent deliveries, the focus can only be on systems already in service or in storage, factoring in the time needed for repairs and refurbishment. For systems like NASAMS and IRIS-T, discussions involve placing new orders, as these are already being regularly procured by partners for Ukraine and shipped directly from factories.  

Faster options could involve the MIM-23 Hawk. Spain, for example, might theoretically transfer up to four additional batteries remaining after delivering two to Ukraine. Romania is also estimated to have up to eight batteries, including the latest Hawk XXI version. However, Bucharest would first want replacements, with the Israeli Spyder system currently emerging as a favorite in their procurement tender.

Greece reportedly has up to seven MIM-23B I-Hawk batteries, but instead of supplying systems like the S-300, Tor, and Osa to Ukraine, it provides them to Armenia. However, it’s possible that Hawk systems could be purchased from non-NATO countries. For example, Jordan has about five batteries and, while not directly involved, indirectly supports Ukraine’s military - such as through the transfer of Gepard systems to Ukraine via the U.S.

There’s also a chance to secure decommissioned MIM-23 Hawk systems from Taiwan, which reportedly has up to 15 batteries. While earlier reports of their transfer were premature (as analyzed in a separate publication), it’s unclear whether Ukraine ultimately received them. However, the key factor in transferring any weapon system isn’t just the availability of the equipment but also the training of personnel to operate these air defense systems, which also requires time.