Ukrainian Armed Forces enter Kursk region: Time for China to act

This was true during the German-Soviet war, and Putin continues the same approach in Ukraine. Moscow is once again prepared to endure massive losses just to claim victory over an enemy that fights according to entirely different, civilized rules. The Pentagon and NATO surely understand that limited military aid from the West won't turn the tide in Ukraine's favor. Yet, Washington and Brussels persist in delivering aid in measured doses, fully aware that without ample modern Western weaponry, this war could drag on for years.

The Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region was designed to break this cycle, and the situation is beginning to shift. But not everyone in the West is willing to acknowledge that Putin’s war in Ukraine isn't just about territory — it’s about the survival of Ukraine as a state. After Ukraine, the Kremlin’s next target is to establish control over Europe, just as it did in Eastern Europe after World War II.

Putin aims to crush Ukraine’s sovereignty, and the fragmented, limited Western aid only convinces him that he can succeed. Following Ukraine’s offensive in the Kursk region, large parts of Russia are beginning to feel the consequences of Putin’s ill-conceived invasion and his unprovoked full-scale war in 2022. Now, the war is coming home to the Russian Federation, and it certainly isn’t supported by the hundreds of thousands of mothers whose sons have been sacrificed by Putin’s regime. But even this hasn’t been enough for the Russian population to truly grasp that this war impacts them personally.

Ukraine receives support from the West in the form of resources, weapons, and undoubtedly technical and strategic guidance, but it's far from sufficient. Russia must experience an economic and managerial breakdown, without it, Moscow will persist in its war against Ukraine because the Putinists couldn't care less that escalation of confrontation will inevitably increase the global threat.

Putin sees himself as a grand strategist of the 21st century, a historical figure on par with Julius Caesar, Alexander the Great, or Napoleon Bonaparte. Nothing will convince him otherwise.

On August 24, Ukraine marked the 33rd anniversary of its independence. Yet, the West finds countless reasons to delay Ukraine's entry into NATO and the European Union. Serious Western experts know very well that stalling Ukraine’s European integration only emboldens Russia to wage war against it.

Ukrainians are dying defending Western democracy, fighting for their European choice — to join the EU and NATO. No European nation has had to fight for the European identity as tragically as Ukraine, yet we’re still told, "You’re not ready to join NATO and the EU because you haven’t completed all the necessary procedures."

Putin is gambling with lives for his own ambitions, and his objectives in this war are crystal clear — Russia must win, which means eradicating the Ukrainian state. Any other outcome will be seen as a loss in the Kremlin. Ignoring this is to deny the imperial nature of the modern Russian Federation, which is wholly fixated on seeking revenge in Ukraine.

The Russian dictator is hell-bent on the destruction of Ukraine, and the only way to cure him of this long-standing obsession is through forceful intervention. He poses a direct threat not just to Ukraine, but to the independence of European nations, a reality that is most clearly understood in the Baltic states and Poland.

To neutralize these threats from Russia, the U.S. and Europe must lift all restrictions on the Ukrainian military's use of Western weapons against any target within the Russian Federation. Once weapons enter Ukrainian territory, the Armed Forces should have full discretion to deploy them as they see fit. If not, even in 2025, the West will still be deliberating on how to handle Moscow.

By sending troops into Russia’s Kursk region, Ukraine has escalated the situation. It's highly likely that Putin may not survive this critical test. The only question is who within the Russian establishment might replace him and whether the new ruler will be willing to withdraw Russian forces from all Ukrainian territories.

It’s unlikely that a more moderate figure, like Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin or Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin, would take over. More likely, after Putin's removal, power will fall into the hands of FSB circles or military generals. This is a crucial consideration when planning future relations with a post-Putin Russia.

The Russian bear should not be underestimated, but it shouldn’t be overestimated either. While Putin is utterly indifferent to the lives of his own soldiers, he values his own life above all else. This could very well be the key point of any negotiations with the Kremlin’s ruler.

Putin can’t relinquish power voluntarily because he doesn’t trust the supposed guarantees of immunity from his closest circle. He knows they’re ready to pin the blame for the bloody adventure in Ukraine solely on him. He also knows that the West won’t grant him any leniency. Having committed countless crimes in Ukraine, Syria, Georgia, Chechnya, and beyond, there’s no amnesty in store for him.

For Putin, every new day of the war in Ukraine is not just about prolonging his presidency, but about prolonging his life. Understanding this might just be the key to figuring out what to do with him next.

Putin has willingly become a vassal of Chinese leader Xi Jinping, reducing Russia to a mere raw material supplier for the People's Republic of China. He sees this as his best strategic move and will cling to it until the end.

Given that the Russian dictator will fight tooth and nail to avoid accountability, Xi Jinping, who already knows that Russia’s prolonged war in Ukraine is severely harming China’s economy, might consider offering Putin and some of his cronies political asylum in China.

This could involve designating a secluded area on one of the islands like Hainan, Qingdao, or Dalian for them. In exchange, the dictator would need to surrender 95 percent of the funds he’s stolen from Russians over more than two decades to aid Ukraine's reconstruction. Considering that Putin’s personal fortune — hidden under the names of proxies like cellist Sergey Roldugin — totals at least $200 billion, possibly even $300 billion, these would be substantial sums.

Negotiations with Xi Jinping to secure asylum for Putin should begin immediately. This could be a real step toward ending the Russian-Ukrainian war and withdrawing Russian forces from all Ukrainian territories.

If Putin refuses this resignation option, the Americans and Europeans should warn Xi Jinping that they will begin supplying Ukraine with the most advanced weapons, abandoning the old practice of providing outdated arms designed by the West 30 or 40 years ago.

There’s no need to hunt down Putin in his various bunkers, expand military operations into Russian territory, or wait for the Russian elites to realize they need to remove him from power, one way or another.

This is a peace plan that hasn’t been proposed or voiced by anyone yet. But it might turn out to be the most realistic one so far. Now, it’s up to Xi Jinping and Beijing.

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About the author. Viktor Kaspruk, journalist.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.