Russia may retreat in Crimea, military expert believes

This prediction comes from military expert Valentyn Badrak, who serves as the director of the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Research (CACDS), as stated on Espreso TV.

“If there were a significant military confrontation in Crimea, resulting in the defeat of Russian forces and equipment, Russia might opt for a "gesture of goodwill" similar to what happened in Kherson, ultimately vacating Crimea,” he said.

He speculates that this move could align with the eventual downfall of Putin's regime or his physical death.

“With a change in leadership, it might be easier for Russia to make such a decision, as the new leadership could acknowledge Putin's mistakes,” Badrak believes. 

Additionally, Ukraine is actively enhancing the capabilities of its missiles and drones, with plans to significantly increase the payload on drones. These upgraded drones are expected to pose a substantial threat to defense facilities.

"We are in the process of developing a 500 km range missile, which we hope will be ready for deployment by early 2024. Once this technology is in place, we anticipate severe damage to Russia's defense infrastructure, particularly defense enterprises. Achieving our political objectives through military means could become feasible once this milestone is reached," he added.

Gesture of goodwill

In June 2022, the Russians called the withdrawal of their garrison from Zmiinyi Island a gesture of goodwill after Ukrainian artillery established fire control over it.

• On the night of August 24, a Ukrainian special forces operation was executed in Crimea. Ukrainian soldiers infiltrated the peninsula and executed various missions, including neutralizing enemy personnel and assets.

• On September 6, the State Security Service disclosed that Ukraine's special operation in Crimea remains ongoing, although specific details have not been disclosed.