Espreso. Global
OPINION

Next year will not be final year of war

30 December, 2023 Saturday
17:51

This forecast is solely my subjective opinion. It is based on my personal analysis of only open public information As a rule, I have optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. But for the next year, I have only a pessimistic one

client/title.list_title

The thing is that I take into account not only the powers of the parties and their capabilities. First of all, I pay attention to the "will to win". What it means can be explained in sports matches, when the opponents are not equal - the weaker one can win thanks to his "will". The will is a tremendous mobilization of physical and intellectual resources in order to win. The basis of a nation's will is formed by its unity, and this is where we are facing a catastrophe.

2023 was the year of the formation of three different Ukraines. One Ukraine is fighting the enemy every day for victory and survival. These are millions of people who have joined the defence forces or volunteer. The second Ukraine has adapted to life during the war and is dealing with personal issues of earning money on the budget, paving stones, shelters, and so on. The third Ukraine has started playing politics and preparing for elections. All three of these Ukraines do not hear each other and live in a parallel reality. The existence of this division will determine our limited ability to act next year. That is why I am pessimistic.

On the frontline, the next year will be a year of "big digging in". We are moving to active defense, and there will be no major offensives on our part next year. There will be counterattacks, successful operations, but at a local level. The success of our defense will largely depend on the scale of the digging in. We will have to retreat from a number of settlements, including those that are currently being fought over. The goal is levelling the front line and save our personnel. Therefore, I think that next year the front line will stabilize and will continue to be held despite the sometimes intense fighting.

Mobilization will be one of the key issues next year. I am also a pessimist here. Despite the intensification of mobilization methods, the percentage of plan implementation will remain low. This is because mobilization is more influenced by morale than by the forceful methods of the military. And the morale of our society has fallen dramatically, amid an equally failed communication policy.

Unfortunately, I predict a change of military leadership, including at the highest level. At the same time, the collapsed and incompetent government will fall apart even further, but there will be no systemic changes. In order to survive the next year, we need to switch to a military mode as much as possible. Moreover, due to political problems in the West, we will be asked to rely more on our own forces. And these demands will sound louder and louder. We will receive aid, but not in time and not in the amount promised. Yes, in the summer we will be able to use F16s for the first time, but in a very limited way and their impact will be minimal. Conferences with presentations from the Ministry of Economy will be a laughing matter in the West. The only thing they will expect is a clear plan to put the economy on a military track.

The biggest threat for next year is the elections. On March 17, Putin will be re-elected. The West will have to recognize these elections, otherwise no negotiations will be possible in the future. As soon as this happens, a powerful campaign will be launched to discredit Ukraine in the world as a non-democratic state. Orban, Fico, and others will immediately raise the issue of cutting off aid. The accusations will be actively and passively supported by the BRICS countries.

The biggest problem will be Trump's statement. If he says that he does not recognize Zelenskyy as president, we will be in a terrible situation, and we will most likely be forced to hold elections.

Eventually, since we have a political and public consensus not to hold elections, I would rather have a formal election to re-elect Zelenskyy before the war is over. Formal in the sense that all political forces would support the president in these elections. Such a consensus, coupled with, for example, a 90% voting rate, could be a powerful signal to the world. I predict that at first we will not hold the elections, then we will have problems, and we will hold them in the autumn together with the parliamentary elections. The political forces will agree to re-elect Zelenskyy, but they will demand free elections to the parliament.

To summarize: next year will not be the year the war ends. It will not bring us good news in the form of liberated Crimea or access to the 1991 borders. But at the same time, no major catastrophes should occur.

Source

About the author. Victor Andrusiv, political and public figure, analyst, and publicist

The editors do not always share the views expressed by the authors of the blogs. 

Tags:
Read also:
  • News
2024, Friday
11 October
11:50
Ukrainian Armed Forces control 40-50% of Toretsk - City Military Administration
11:27
ISW analyzes impact of Ukraine's strikes on Russian ammunition depots on frontline dynamics
11:03
169 clashes erupt on Russian-Ukrainian frontline, with Russia pushing in Lyman direction
10:40
Russia captures 3 settlements near Myrnohrad in Pokrovsk direction - DeepState
10:17
Ukraine, China discuss political settlement of war launched by Russia
09:55
Russian troops attack Odesa region, killing 4 people, including teenager
09:36
Russia loses military helicopter, 8 tanks and 1,140 soldiers in one day of war in Ukraine
2024, Thursday
10 October
21:20
Radio Liberty journalists come under Russian fire in Bakhmut sector
21:05
Ukraine's MoD approves over 140 new UAV models for operation in 2024
20:50
Norway allocates EUR 82 million to boost production of weapons for Ukraine
20:32
Ukrainian journalist Viktoria Roshchyna dies in Russian captivity
20:15
Exclusive
North Korean soldiers may appear in Ukraine - Defense Express
19:55
Could hypothetical invitation to NATO not be trap for Ukraine?
19:40
Russian army hits almost 300 objects of Ukraine's port infrastructure in 3 months
19:22
90 combat clashes take place along frontline on Oct. 10: most intense in Lyman, Kurakhove, Pokrovsk sectors
19:05
Ukrainian parliament adopts draft law on foreigners’ military service under contract
18:50
Exclusive
Ukrainian border guards fully control border with Belarus
18:32
Exclusive
Aviation expert tells how many MiG-31K Kinzhal missiles carriers are left in Russia
18:15
OPINION
Taiwan's lessons: how Ukraine can avoid losing war
17:53
Kadyrov vows 'blood revenge' against three Russian MPs over Moscow shooting
17:34
Exclusive
Putin pushes for control of Donetsk, Luhansk regions before winter hits
17:15
Putin fires Russian ambassador to the U.S., Antonov
16:53
Russia's Yak-130 trainer jets face rising failures due to makeshift engine parts, analyst says
16:31
Ukraine's drone strike on Khanskaya airbase: aircraft types and why it's not just a training base
16:15
Yak-130 military aircraft crashes in Russia
15:54
OPINION
Why West is afraid of Russia's decolonization
15:43
Ukrainian defense forces attack Khanskaya military airfield in Adygea, Russia
15:33
Georgian PM says party's banners of Ukraine's destruction “exposed opponents' lies”
15:27
Updated
Zelenskyy presents Victory Plan to UK Prime Minister Starmer in London
15:16
Exclusive
"Priorities matter": Ukraine's Ex-Chief Military Prosecutor on Biden’s canceled Ramstein trip
14:57
Britain tightens control over compliance with sanctions against Russia
14:35
Russia may attack Sweden for control of Baltic Sea, defense minister says
13:50
China stops supplying raw materials for medicines to Russia
13:46
Updated
Russia attacks Odesa region's port infrastructure with ballistic missiles: 8 killed, several wounded
13:34
Exclusive
Russia's war offers North Korea chance for money, food, technology — East Asia Expert
13:16
What is White House's plan for Ukraine, General Cavoli's report on key weapons for Ukraine
12:57
Russia regularly deploys chemical weapons against Ukraine – OPCW representative
12:42
Review
Attack on Russian arsenal in Bryansk and U.S. weapons that will aid Ukraine. Serhiy Zgurets’ column
12:18
Russia strikes Ukraine with drones, bombs: 4 injured in Zaporizhzhia, high-rise damaged in Kryvyi Rih
11:39
Zelenskyy meets with leaders of Albania, North Macedonia, Greece and Slovenia
More news