Russia can be destroyed by local barons
A key process is happening in Russia. I haven’t written about it publicly, but have been discussing it privately for the past couple of months as it gained momentum
It is about the purge of regional elites - those who could potentially become the biggest threat to Putin.
“These individuals (in internal slang, we call them "Kravchuks" to contrast with the leaders of national liberation and regionalist movements - "Chornovols") were expected to play a key role in future processes.”
These individuals are firmly entrenched in their positions, with money, influence over security forces, clans, patronage networks, corruption schemes, solid education, management experience, economic understanding, real estate in prime European locations, and children studying abroad. They lack only two things: a vision for the future (which, instead, belongs to the "Chornovols"), and now, security. Security is fundamental; without it, all their possessions, including "wealth earned through hard work," are rendered meaningless.
And now these people are beginning to receive two important signals.
The first one is from the Kremlin: you are loyal, but you are not loyal enough, and we will be cleaning you up a bit. You will lose your positions, and possibly also your property, freedom, and possibly your lives. And the “heroes of the special military operation" will take your place.
The second signal is from the street: The tsar is good, the boyars are bad, and you are the boyars, and you are to blame for everything.
This local “ kravchuk,” a powerful baron who was sure yesterday that his oath of allegiance to the tsar would protect him from the oprichniki and the mob, is now sitting there wondering who will come first: these people will shoot him or hang him?
If the West were ready for a Russian defeat, and Ukraine had a strategic vision of victory, this would be a good moment.
About the author. Valerii Pekar, lecturer at the Kyiv-Mohyla Academy.
The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.
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