Crimea: panic among 'relocated residents' becomes key negotiation tool

Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate has Maguras, the Security Service has Malyuks and other tools, while the navy has boats provided by partners. Soon, Hetman Ivan Vyhovsky corvette and Hetman Ivan Mazepa corvette, being built in Turkey, will be completed and won’t need to pass through the straits.

In summer, with long daylight hours and frequent calm seas, visibility is so clear that Russians can see us visually or through basic video surveillance methods.

"In winter, Russians can spot our maritime drone systems only visually at the moment of an explosion or from helicopters and planes."

Let me remind you that Maguras bring gifts for helicopter pilots, equipped with machine guns and small rocket launchers. Of course, their effectiveness isn’t 100% in a storm. But try telling that to a Russian helicopter pilot flying at night near the entrance to Novorossiysk Bay.

Speaking of the bay - do you know what a bora is? Google it. It’s a mountain squall that descends onto this bay chosen by the Russians. In the narrow bay, ships are forced to seek escape into open waters.

And out there - hungry Maguras await.

Yes, the Crimean Bridge is covered by an incredible amount of air defense and missile defense systems, surrounded by patrol boats and semi-sunken barges. Su- and MiG-fighters patrol the skies.

And yet, Russians keep talking about how easy it will be to restore the bridge if something hits it. Sure, especially on shallow waters where you can't bring in a bridge layer.

We know that Ukraine now has more resources than two years ago: ATACMS, SCALP, Storm Shadow, Palyanytsya, Neptune, Peklo... And drones can now swarm in large numbers. When the time comes, the bridge will lie in ruins on the seabed, and Novorossiysk Bay and the base in Ochamchira will become the next ship graveyards.

The main thing to understand is that the best negotiation position is the panic of those who moved to Crimea over the past ten years: collaborators, retired military personnel in love with Putin, and those who absolutely don’t want to leave Crimea.

And a long coastline with blind air defense - you can’t place a Korean soldier at every step.

I wish our military success in this scenario.

And yes, it's not just in Moscow that those who gave criminal orders are doomed... Crimea, get ready.

Source

About the author. Oleksandr Krasovytskyi, Ukrainian publisher, CEO of the Folio publishing house.

The editors don't always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.