Russian forces attempt to encircle Ukrainian troops: battles near Kurakhove. Serhiy Zgurets' column

Kurakhove direction

The situation around the area remains difficult. There have been reports that Ukrainian troops have withdrawn from the risky area of the northern Kurakhove sack, Uspenivka and Kostiantynopolske. A group of Deep State analysts reported that not everyone managed to leave, and the operational encirclement of some of the Ukrainian units continues. However, the command of the Khortytsia unit denied this information, stating that the decision to withdraw the units was made to avoid encirclement, and the military continue to perform tasks on the Kurakhove-Kostiantynopolske line.

Now the dynamics near Kurakhove are such that the Russian forces are trying to create preconditions for a new encirclement. It is important that the Ukrainian military leadership assesses the situation around Uspenivka, draws conclusions and avoids similar risks.

Kursk region

In the north, in the Kursk region, the fourth wave of the Russian offensive against the bridgehead held by the Ukrainian military has been underway since December 14. The offensive is taking place from the west, north and east. In the west, the Rusians advanced 1.5 km north of the village of Kruhlenke. In the north, in the area of Pohrebky and Mala Loknya, there are no advances. On the southern flank, in the Sudzha direction, fighting continues to the west and north of Plekhove. The Russian troops are trying to break through the Ukrainian defense to no avail, and are suffering significant losses.

This week has been revealing because of the numerous photos and videos that have become evidence of the North Korean military's involvement in the war, using massive attack tactics. They proved to be helpless against Ukrainian drones, artillery and cluster munitions. The enemy will try to adapt to the new conditions, but the language barrier and complicated interactions with the Russian leadership will make this adaptation difficult. The Kursk direction will remain the most active in the coming months, as a third to a quarter of the fighting takes place in this area. It is important to ensure optimal approaches to destroying the enemy in this area, where Russian airborne units and marines are concentrated.

Lyman direction

The Russian troops are conducting assault operations, although not as active as near Pokrovsk and around Kurakhove. However, this does not mean that this area is less difficult to hold. Rostyslav Yashchyshyn, senior lieutenant, spokesman for the 63rd separate mechanized brigade, spoke about the Russian goals and the Ukrainian Armed Forces' counteraction in the Lyman direction. According to him, there are no major changes. The Russian forces are trying to attack mainly with infantry, as the Ukrainian Armed Forces destroyed a lot of equipment: “There are already whole tank cemeteries in the fields in front of Serebryanske forestry. This year, we have destroyed about seven dozen tanks and a large amount of other scrap metal, and we are actively eliminating Russian infantry."

The brigade has been stationed in this area for an extended period and is well-acquainted with all the routes, approaches, access points, and flight paths. Ukrainian forces control not only the land but also the air. Pilots have learned to shoot down enemy reconnaissance drones, and this activity has become very effective. Additionally, anti-aircraft gunners, air defense units, and the drone battalion are working proficiently.

Occupiers are behaving in a subdued manner under the threat of drones and are surrendering. The enemy facing the Ukrainian Armed Forces on this front is the 25th Russian Army, according to Yashchyshyn. "Its personnel consists of different categories. The first category includes socially disadvantaged Russians who don’t pay taxes and contribute nothing to their state. They are expendable and can be sent to the front, where our drones can target them. The second category is convicts, or those who were supposed to become prisoners but chose war over prison. The third category consists of the lower-income segments of society, who opt for war due to lack of other income sources. The fourth category is ideologically driven soldiers who want to impose the 'Russian peace' on us."

Russian soldiers have minimal training, primarily learning how to use rifles, throw grenades, and navigate the terrain. Recently, they’ve been issued night cloaks and white camouflage suits, but Ukrainian drones easily spot them from the air.

“Their task is to move toward the indicated direction and occupy trenches, but before reaching their destination, they are destroyed by Ukrainian drones. Some are killed, while others get lost on the battlefield and often surrender, unable to distinguish between their own forces and the enemy. When they attempt to return to their unit, they face severe punishment, including being thrown into concrete pits, enduring extreme heat in summer and cold in winter. The leadership shows no concern for their soldiers, misleading them by claiming those who didn’t return went on leave. Over time, the soldiers lose trust, and some try to flee. If caught, they are returned to their units, where conditions are even worse. Previously tasked with strengthening bunkers or carrying supplies, they are now sent to the front lines,” - Yashchyshyn said.

Massive attack on December 20

On the night of December 20, Russia launched an attack on Ukraine using drones and ballistic missiles. Air defense forces destroyed 40 Shahed drones and other types of weapons across eight Ukrainian regions. In the capital, Kyiv, the Russian terrorists used ballistic and aerobalistic missiles, without deploying cruise missiles or drones. The Air Force Command reported that during the battle, all five Iskander-M ballistic missiles and possibly North Korean KN-23 missiles were destroyed by air defense systems.

Due to falling debris, there were casualties in Kyiv following the Russian missile and drone attack. According to the Air Force Command's infographic, five missiles were recorded, although the Kyiv City State Administration initially reported eight. Ukrainian sources also found remains of Kinzhal missiles with minimal damage to objects.

It remains unclear whether this strike was planned or a spur-of-the-moment decision by an agitated Putin, who had spent the previous day explaining the advantages of the Oreshnik missile. Typically, preparations for a combined strike using cruise missiles can take up to a week. However, there was only an eight-hour gap between Putin's press conference and the missile launches, which is insufficient for thorough preparation. Given the Russian terrorist tactics, we should not expect stability in their decisions.

Increasing the number of air defense systems remains a critical issue for the Ukrainian military and political leadership. Germany and other countries continue to supply air defense equipment, and this support will continue to grow through the end of this year and into next year.