Russian Su-30 downing over Black Sea hints at multiple Ukrainian operations in Russia. Serhiy Zgurets' column

Ukraine's intelligence downs Russian Su-30 fighter jet over Black Sea

The Defence Intelligence of Ukraine released a video showing the flight of a Russian Su-30 multi-role fighter jet. The flight of this aircraft was recorded by Ukrainian Bayraktar TB2 drone. In the video, we can see the last minutes of the lives of two Su-30 crew members before the aircraft was shot down by a Ukrainian Special Forces fighter with a man-portable air defense system. The intelligence agency itself conducted an operation in the Black Sea on the morning of September 11. It was about controlling the facilities located in the Black Sea near Zmiinyi Island. At that time, Russian troops attacked Zmiinyi and the Boyko towers with Kh-31 missiles, 6 such missiles were fired. A Su-30 aircraft disappeared from the radar after the missiles were launched at the Odesa region. Later, evidence of the destruction of this Russian aircraft was found. In my opinion, the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine has once again demonstrated their skills and speed of reaction on the battlefield, even though it was in the Black Sea, where Russian ships and aircraft are afraid to go. However, if they dared to take such a step, the result will be the same as we saw in the video from the DIU yesterday.

Kazakhstan company helps supply Russia with French equipment for Su-30SM aircraft

An important study from the InformNapalm community has been released, which is also dedicated to Su-30SM aircraft. It says that as of 2024, Russia had 130 of these aircraft, of which more than 15 were destroyed. However, the main point of this study is that these aircraft are equipped with French equipment from Thales and Sagem. In particular, displays, relocation systems, indicators, and so on. In order to operate the aircraft and attack Ukrainian cities, the Russians need to maintain French equipment. An InformNapalm investigation says that Russia is currently servicing Su-30SM aircraft through the Kazakh company ARC Group, which cooperates with the Russian military. This investigation provides a significant amount of documentation, contracts, and names of people. First and foremost, with this investigation, InformNapalm seeks to draw attention to this fact and put an end to the opportunities that the Russians are currently using to circumvent sanctions. In fact, to force French companies to see how Russia maintains its military potential through Kazakhstan despite the sanctions.

We should add to the InformNapalm investigation the data we know. In 2022, we also did a study where we analyzed samples of Russian equipment that were destroyed in the first months of the full-scale invasion, and where there was French equipment from the same companies, Thales and Sagem. In fact, from 2015 to 2019, these companies received Russian contracts worth over 150 million euros. However, these contracts should not have been awarded, as the European Union had imposed sanctions on the supply of weapons and equipment to the Russian Federation in 2014 following the downing of the Boeing aircraft. Despite these sanctions, the two companies continued to supply equipment to Russia either directly or through Belarus. Because Belarus became a hub for Russia, where, in particular, Sosna-M tank sights were manufactured, which were installed on Russian T-72BM3 tanks that attacked Ukrainian cities. Then we were investigating the fact that one of the tanks was destroyed near Mariupol. It was the one with French thermal imagers in it. Later, a K-52 helicopter was destroyed with the same thermal imagers and other military systems (these helicopters attacked Ukrainian cities in the first days of the invasion). Therefore, today it is extremely important not only to strengthen sanctions against Russia, but also to take active steps with the involvement of NATO and the United States intelligence services to make it impossible to supply equipment and machinery to Russia in circumvention of existing sanctions.

Lifting restrictions for Ukraine on strikes on Russian territory with Western weapons

Mykhailo Samus, military expert, director of the New Geopolitics Research Network, deputy director of the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies, believes that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's visit to Ukraine is connected with the election process. According to him, the election technologies, especially those of Kamala Harris's campaign, are against allowing Ukraine to strike with American weapons on the territory of the Russian Federation, as this could lead to an escalation of hostilities, which is not in the interests of the Democratic Party. The Democrats are not interested in the issue of the Russian-Ukrainian war coming to the forefront of Kamala Harris's campaign. Samus suggested that Kamala Harris's political strategists have more influence on U.S. policy than Antony Blinken. The expert noted that it seems that Antony Blinken had a personal mission when he came to Kyiv. In particular, to demonstrate that he supports the lifting of restrictions on strikes by American weapons on the territory of the Russian Federation. However, there are forces in Washington that are against escalation on the front. Obviously, strikes on Russian territory will lead to an escalation of the war. However, as the expert noted, the opponents of this decision have significantly weakened their arguments after Iran began supplying Russia with ballistic missiles.

Ukraine's victory plan should be presented to Biden, Harris and Trump

Military expert Mykhailo Samus also commented on the preparation of Ukraine's victory plan. According to him, it is very good that the points of this plan are kept in great secrecy in order to present it to the Biden administration, as well as Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. The expert noted that this plan could have been based on President Zelenskyy's peace plan. In particular, the 10 points and the diplomatic intention to hold the second Peace Summit. However, the plan for Ukraine's victory should also include a military component, that is, a request to strike at Russian territory. This includes, in particular, ATACMS, Storm Shadow, and Scalp missiles. The expert also mentioned the Kursk operation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This operation is also likely to be part of the military component of Ukraine's plan to win this war. After all, the main goal of the Kursk operation was to remove as many occupying Russian forces from the territory of Ukraine as possible. Samus also emphasized that the Ukrainian Armed Forces' operation in the Kursk region cannot be the only stage. Logically, Ukraine's General Staff is preparing more than one similar operation against Russia.

U.S. tries to control the level of escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian war

Mykhailo Samus believes that if Joe Biden's administration had a strategy for Ukraine's victory with the supply of the maximum amount of weapons, it should have started implementing this plan now. Since the requirement of the Congress to provide such a plan from the U.S. president does not affect the limits, timing, and volume of arms supplies to Ukraine. According to Samus, Republicans are already signing petitions asking the Biden administration to lift restrictions on Ukraine's use of American weapons on Russia. In fact, according to the expert, the Biden administration's plan is to avoid escalation in the Russian-Ukrainian war as much as possible. They are trying to control the escalation as much as possible and slowly weaken Russia. The United States provides Ukraine with the means to fight, but which would not lead to categorical changes at the front.