Russia's strike on Ukraine's Dnipro with Rubezh ICBM: panic is unwarranted

1. Confirmation of the missile type: First, it would be prudent to wait for official confirmation regarding the type of missile used. The key nuance here is whether it is indeed an intercontinental ballistic missile or a medium-range missile. Missiles like the RS-26 Rubezh (or its base model, the RSD-10 Pioneer) are referred to by Russians as intercontinental, though this is unverified. They previously labeled them as such to bypass the limitations of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (up to 5,500 km).

"2. No need for panic: For Ukraine, this changes little. Missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads have already been used against Ukraine, including strikes over long distances (e.g., the Kh-55 missile and its modified versions, even with nuclear warhead simulators)."

3. A signal to Europe and the U.S., not Ukraine: This is a message not directed at Ukraine but an attempt to bolster Russia's nuclear blackmail against Europe and provoke a reaction from U.S. allies by threatening World War III. Essentially, it is a psychological operation. From a military perspective, such use (given the distance and poor accuracy) without a nuclear warhead is entirely irrelevant.

4. Coordination with the U.S.: It is evident that the Russians informed the Americans about their intentions and the number of launches. Therefore, it is no surprise that the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine acted in accordance with their security protocols—nothing more, nothing less. No one was spreading panic. By now, those who ignored similar American signals in the past should have learned their lesson.

5. Sharing critical information: Did our partners inform the relevant structures in Ukraine about the crucial intelligence they received? Hopefully, yes—especially since a hotline for such issues between Kyiv and Washington, similar to the Washington-Moscow line, was restored before 2019.

Finally, only 3–5 specialists in Ukraine are currently qualified to publicly comment on the technical aspects of using strategic missile systems. I trust you know their names. 

Others either cannot comment due to their current positions or choose not to do so publicly. Even what I have written here is not a deep analysis. 

I am merely drawing your attention to this matter because it is sensitive and requires proper analysis and an official assessment in the coming days, as well as the development of coordinated and carefully crafted informational messages.

Source

About the author. Valeriy Chaly, Ukrainian diplomat, former Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine to the U.S.

The editors don't always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.