ISW tells whether Shoigu's reforms will affect course of war in Ukraine

This was reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Analysts believe that Shoigu's plans demonstrate Russia's intention to reform its army to conduct large-scale combat operations with conventional weapons not only in Ukraine but also in general. 

However, it is unclear whether the Russian armed forces will develop within three years, as previously described by the head of the Russian Defense Ministry.

It is also noted that Russia may nominally form new divisions. However, it is still unclear whether it will have enough forces to fully man them to doctrinal strength during a war against Ukraine.

Shoigu has previously announced new military reforms in Russia that have not been implemented. In particular, he wanted to form 12 new units of the Western Military District by the end of 2022, as well as recruit 100,000 reservists in August 2021. However, this was prevented by the economic problems that Russia will continue to face and which, according to analysts, will hamper the ability of the Russian military command to supply new forces.

In addition, the ISW believes that reform and expansion on the scale outlined by Shoigu will not occur in time to significantly affect the course of hostilities in Ukraine for many months. 

However, they could change the balance of power by 2024, which would create conditions for a more serious military threat from Russia to its neighboring countries, including NATO.

• On December 21, 2022, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu proposed to increase the number of Russian armed forces to 1.5 million people. Subsequently, on January 17, 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered to increase the Russian army to 1.5 million troops over the next three years.