ISW explains why Putin prepares for escalation in Northeastern Ukraine

This was reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

"Putin may be creating the conditions for further Russian cross-border raids into the northeastern regions of Ukraine, likely in an attempt to strengthen domestic propaganda and push Ukrainian forces into the northern border regions," the report said.

Thus, Putin held a meeting on February 1 to discuss the restoration of housing infrastructure in the occupied Crimea, Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk regions after the shelling. At the meeting, the Russian president said that his administration considers the cessation of Ukrainian shelling of the border regions a priority, but that this task is "a matter for the military department."

"Putin's attention to the threat of Ukrainian shelling of Russian border areas probably serves two purposes. He is promoting an information operation aimed at presenting the war in Ukraine as an existential threat to Russian citizens in order to gain domestic support for a protracted war," the experts write.

Putin can also create conditions for the escalation near the border to distract and disperse Ukrainian forces from critical frontlines, trapping them in the northeastern border areas.

Experts consider a Russian invasion from Belarus extremely unlikely.

"ISW still believes that Russian invasion from Belarus is extremely unlikely, and the information operation to push Ukrainian troops closer to the Belarusian border does not seem to be working as Ukrainian officials consider the threat of an invasion to be more and more unlikely," the Institute's report says.

Analysts add that the threat of cross-border raids from the Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk regions into the north and northeast of Ukraine is likely an attempt to force Ukraine to deploy limited units in those areas, thus scattering Ukrainian forces in the face of a possible Russian offensive in the months to come.

• On January 20, the Institute for the Study of War assumed that a Russian attack on the territory of Ukraine from Belarus could be more likely at the end of 2023.

• On January 30, Andriy Demchenko, the spokesman of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine, said that on average, about 9 000 Russian troops may be stationed on the territory of Belarus. The situation on the border with Belarus was under control, there was no movement of equipment and enemy troops.

• On February 1, Belaruski Gayun reported that Belarus might have received one division of the Iskander operational-tactical missile complex. The division includes four launchers for eight ballistic missiles.