About Ukraine without Ukraine in whispers and out loud

There are reports of secret talks between retired American officials and Russians, including Lavrov, a potential defendant in the International Criminal Court. Official Washington, of course, denies any involvement, saying that no one is forbidden to talk. But I don't think that European expert Charles Kupchan or Russia scholar Thomas Graham, and especially the current president of the Council on Foreign Relations, Richard Haass, acted at their own risk without consulting White House officials beforehand.

“At the end of the day, the issue is not someone talking to someone about something. The issue, as always, is in the realm of morality. Real politics, of course, is far from pompous declarations, but I think it is unacceptable to hold consultations with war criminals or those who sponsor the terrorist Putin regime.”

However, based on current trends, the Americans are forced to look for any opportunity to implement the stillborn concept of ending the Russian-Ukrainian war. It is to ensure Ukraine's victory and at the same time prevent the collapse of the Russian Federation. I understand the depth of the "concern" that has infected the Washington administration about the potential situation when God knows what will happen on the territory of a nuclear power, when wars of all against all will rage there.

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But, first, I don't think the United States will have the tools to neutralize potential nuclear risks, especially far from its own borders. Secondly, the collapse of the empire is inevitable as we are witnessing chaotic movements among various political, military, business, and regional elites, real unmanageability of the monster, which can organize marches on Moscow in the heat of the moment. And thirdly, who better than the current head of the White House to know that cooking "Kyiv-style cutlets" is the job of philistines and not leaders... Biden's challenge is to not be the first one and to maintain his reputation as a leader, which until now was considered almost reinforced concrete.

By the way, in my opinion, the backstage and behind-the-scenes dances of the American administration are partly provoked by Grandpa Joe's desire to be the first in everything. Experts have already noticed some friction between Washington and London, which, in particular, affected the choice of the future NATO Secretary General.

“America sees the UK as a real rival in Europe, and Downing Street's radical moves to support Ukraine (in particular, in the "aircraft coalition" or the provision of long-range weapons) without the White House's approval irritate the people there.”

The "great battle" for Europe (and Ukraine), which is unfolding in the offices of the world's largest powers, has also led to an approach to formalizing Kyiv's membership in NATO. I understand that Kyiv will not receive an invitation to join the Alliance in Vilnius, and I understand that another declaration on security guarantees, despite bilateral agreements signed with individual members of the bloc, is unlikely to meet our ambitions.

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But in recent days, an interesting version has been voiced that these bilateral agreements may end in a surprise: the US in Vilnius may grant Ukraine the status of a major non-NATO ally.

“It is clear that Kyiv will not be able to refuse this offer, given Biden's categorical statements that Ukraine is not ready to become a member of the Alliance. Especially given the experience of Israel, Taiwan, and Japan, which have benefited from this format of relations in terms of security and economy. Washington will thus find an argument for Russia's constant complaints about ‘NATO at the gate’.”

But there are some very ambiguous nuances. Although the status of a major ally does not prohibit a country from participating in defense alliances or coalitions (for example, this status does not prevent Brazil from being a member of BRICS), it seems that for Ukraine it will become a barrier to NATO prospects. At least, that's my opinion. I also think that similar problems will arise with Ukraine's future membership in the EU, because friendship is friendship, but there is competition between the United States and the Union. In addition, no European country has ever been granted the status of a special ally of the United States, these are Latin America, several African countries, the Middle and Far East, Indonesia, Australia...

Well, in a week we will know more.

About the author. Ihor Hulyk is a journalist, editor-in-chief of the Espreso website.

The editorial staff do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.