Ukraine - NATO: No one says "No", so the question of “How” remains 

There is less than a month left before the NATO summit in Vilnius. On the one hand, Russian propagandists are shouting that "the question of membership is no longer on the table". On the other hand, Deputy Head of the Presidential Office Ihor Zhovkva said that 20 (out of 31) NATO member states "have formalised their support" for Ukraine's membership.

It is not even funny to listen to Russian propagandists. As they say, "a manipulation has been spotted": they are trying to create a picture that Ukraine's position has deteriorated. But this is not true.

Although we understand that we will not join NATO on 12 July - because a country will not be accepted into NATO during a war. But this means that Ukraine is actually interested in something else: what will be the real content of the two theses that are being discussed at different levels and that appear in the media from time to time.

Read also:   There is no "fatigue from Ukraine"

“The first thesis is what exactly will be Ukraine's path to NATO. No one is saying "no" to Ukraine, so the question remains "how". The second is what will be the security guarantees for Ukraine before it joins”

Ukraine's path to NATO will most likely follow a special procedure. And this procedure is being discussed now, and it should be announced at the summit. If it is not announced, it will be a heavy diplomatic defeat. In any case, in Vilnius, our partners will be assessing our three sides.

The first, of course, is the military. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are showing an example of how NATO weapons and NATO strategic and tactical schemes, combined with Ukrainian perseverance and knowledge of the enemy, lead Ukraine to victory.

As for the other two, we have difficult battles ahead. Because the second is the resolution of disputes with all NATO member states. For example, Sweden, which should have become a NATO member long ago, has been delayed because of Turkey's position. Ukraine will have to act in a masterful and unexpected way, so that no Hungary and Co. can stop us. And it's not a matter of public speaking, but of multi-level professional work of specialists.

The third side is Ukraine's compliance with the criteria for joining NATO. As with the EU, this is primarily a matter of democracy. Therefore, the government will have to let go of the opposition; freedom of speech will have to be restored; decentralisation will have to be supported; but the government will have to forget about its dreams of bringing the habits of the "mono-majority" to the post-war world forever. The partners will be watching this very closely

Actually, all this will happen after the Victory. What will happen between the Victory and the accession? We are facing the issue of guarantees. There are several levels of them.

The highest is the West's willingness to fight side by side with Ukrainians. Former NATO Secretary General and former adviser to President Poroshenko, Fogh Rasmussen, has already suggested that several member states may do so. There is no official confirmation yet, but it is well known from the history of wars that the participation of citizens of other countries can be voluntary. But the number and equipment of volunteers depends heavily on the attitude of the respective states. There are various options here. It is important that one of them is announced so that Russia also understands what threats it faces from new aggression.

In addition, weapons and technology are important. Here, the West should lift restrictions and launch a mechanism that will allow us to attract not "what is given" but "what is needed". Whether it is a land deal or some other mechanism, Ukraine must clearly understand where it can get what it needs to win. In turn, this requires a corresponding expansion of military production by the allies, the availability of financial resources, and - most importantly - Ukrainian production (either independent or joint with partners).

“In the meantime, sanctions should work. After all, the raw material nature of the Russian economy, despite its obvious shortcomings, has a significant advantage: the ability to very quickly revive and increase the supply of goods to markets and the flow of foreign currency to the budget. And this is all about technology and mass production. Without tougher sanctions, Russia will be able to wage war for years”

In the end, the basic question remains: who will pay for all this. The solution to this problem is the confiscation of Russian funds, assistance from allies, stimulating investment and reviving the Ukrainian economy. As with the issue of criteria for joining NATO and the EU, much depends on the allies' perception of internal processes in Ukraine. Any attempts by the authorities to deceive, steal and divide the partners' funds will have fatal consequences for Ukraine. It will not be possible to outsmart. The sooner the authorities realise this, the better.

Source

About the author. Rostyslav Pavlenko is a Ukrainian politician, political scientist, political strategist, and lecturer. Member of Parliament of Ukraine of the IX convocation

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.