Unbearable cost of defeat for Ukraine

There is always a price that cannot be paid. So let me try to show the cost of "defeat" for Ukraine.

There are two basic scenarios for Ukraine’s defeat in the war: crushing and freezing. The first scenario is clear: the Russian army breaks through the front or encircles Ukrainian forces - we are forced to make a peace agreement. These won't be the conditions of Istanbul; it will be much worse. They will take 4 regions, forbid us from having armed forces (only police), force us to return all Soviet and Russian-era monuments, establish Russian as the state language, impose reparations for Donbas, which we will pay for decades. Most likely, they will demand that we hand over our commanders who were particularly successful on the front.

However, this will not be the end of the war. Organized military groups will turn to terrorism and insurgency. And not just against the Russians, but also against the official government. Amid this chaos, the West will wash its hands even more and take away the workforce. In fact, we will have a "failed state," a hollow state. Corruption, arms, human, and drug trafficking will thrive.

Freezing could be another defeat scenario. The key in this scenario is that freezing does not end the war, but continues it without the active phase. In this scenario, there can be both defeat and victory. The logic of defeat is when freezing weakens us but not the enemy, and the logic of victory is when it weakens the enemy.

Freezing means maintaining the front line. For Ukraine, this means we will be forced to keep large military forces to deter Russia. In some ways, we've already experienced this after Minsk. We will continue to spend significant funds on defense in the face of an almost stagnant economy. Migration will intensify, as it will become impossible to hold people in the country by force, and there will be very few reasons to stay.

After freezing, Ukraine will disappear from the West's agenda, meaning its aid will become small and conditional. NATO and EU membership will remain suspended. Meanwhile, Russia's "advocates" like Orbán and Fico will actively push for lifting sanctions, giving Putin the much-needed resources. Ukraine will also be forced to hold elections, which could lead to a major internal split and political confrontation.

When I hear "how much longer will this last," "how much have we lost," I understand that we are all exhausted, and we have already paid a high price. But even in this situation, we need to understand that defeat is an even greater cost. And personally, the greatest cost of defeat for me would be the devaluation of the memory of Ukrainian heroes.

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About the author. Viktor Andrusiv, political and public figure, analyst, journalist.

The editors don't always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.