Lukashenko has difficult choice. He will have to save himself in China

On April 2, the Robert Lansing Institute, citing an insider in "European intelligence," released information that Russia might be preparing terrorist attacks in Belarus, which would be blamed on members of the Kalinoŭski regiment. The goal is to shift the accents of the terrorist attack in Crocus City Hall, to consolidate the "Ukrainian trail" and, most importantly, to force Lukashenko to move troops into Ukraine.

Insider is a thing. But there is a sum of facts that create a conspicuous background.

First, Lukashenko disavowed Putin's lie that "terrorists from Crocus were moving to Ukraine" with a hard-to-explain eagerness. Insisting that there is no place for terrorists in Belarus.

Second, the Russian media began to emphasize that Russia buys fuel from Belarusian refineries, particularly in Mozyr. In fact, specifically painting the Mozyr refinery as a target and legalizing it as a target for attack. Moreover, not for drones, but for "saboteurs/guerrillas".

Third, Lukashenko suddenly made a trip to the Suwałki Gap and played the aggressor. A clear provocation. And Lukashenko is certainly not an idiot not to realize how it will be perceived. It was done on purpose.

The Minsk leader has also visited Grodno, where he said a lot of things. First, he told the residents that Grodno was a Belarusian city and would not be given to anyone. Then he said with an emphasis that Belarus wanted peace but was preparing for war.

In general, Lukashenko is persistently signaled from Russia that the enemies are in Ukraine. But he insists that the enemies are in the West. And it is necessary to defend the union state. He will lay down his bones, but he will not let the NATO hordes near Russia! That's the kind of man he is!

The logic of the Kremlin's manipulations with Belarus is multi-layered.

First, to tear apart the Ukrainian troops. In the Donbas, the Russians are pressing on, but they are gradually running out of steam. The intensified recruitment campaign has just begun. They need a few months to build up their strength.

It is difficult to push Belarus into war, but it is realistic to aggravate the situation, to set the army in motion so that Ukraine will be forced to increase the presence of troops on the northern border (1,000 km for a minute). And there is also the border with the Russian Federation from the Chernihiv to Luhansk region. Where they can simulate preparations for an offensive on Kyiv-Sumy-Kharkiv.

Second, to start actively using Belarusian airspace for attacks on Ukraine "as a retaliatory measure". This solution Moscow can squeeze out of Lukashenko.

If we analyze when there were outbursts of disinformation about "Lukashenko's readiness to attack Ukraine literally tomorrow," a correlation is noticeable: at these moments, either Russia needed a break or was trying to prevent the concentration of Ukrainian troops. 

The fact is that Lukashenko does not want to be dragged into war, for reasons that are as transparent as possible.

Now he is quietly monetizing his proxy status both ways, and the sanctions are not really interfering. The smallest thing is selling "Kazakh" timber to the EU. If he gets involved in the war, he will instantly lose a lot of bonuses and risk losing power.

The Belarusian army has just zero chances in case of contact with Ukrainian troops. Belarusian border guards in general hide at the sight of Ukrainian. 

Among Belarusians, war is the most unpopular idea. Nominally, hundreds of thousands of people can be mobilized there. But it is not known who will be worse off. Unless the Kremlin changes into Belarusian uniforms the inhabitants of the Volga region and the Urals, because the Caucasus cannot be touched, and the Buryats are running out.

The first step towards Ukraine — automatically minus the Mozyr oil refinery and a number of other enterprises. Just in the first couple of hours. The FSB "partisans" can blow up something non-critical at the plant for the purpose of imitation and incitement. In case of a real war the Ukrainian army will not imitate anything - annihilate it very quickly.

Lukashenko's choice is difficult, but there is a choice. 

The Russians can intimidate him with all sorts of trouble. 

Ukrainians will not intimidate him in case of an attempt of aggression on the part of Minsk. He will have to save himself, at least in China. Although it is not a fact that 1) he will have time, 2) they will accept him.

Source

About author: Alexei Kopytko, military analyst, former advisor to the Ukrainian Minister of Defense.

The editors don't always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.