Ukrainian Armed Forces choose where to continue the offensive. Serhiy Zgurets column

Russia lacks the strength to hold the front

Since the beginning of the large-scale invasion of Ukraine, our army has seized the strategic initiative on the battlefield and continues to hold it. Ukrainian Armed Forces themselves choose where they can and want to continue the offensive, and the aggressor mainly tries to hold the occupied borders, although they do not change the political goals that do not correspond to military capabilities. The front line has shrunk, but Russian enemy does not have enough forces to hold it. That is why the aggressor resorts to solutions such as partial mobilization. Russians have involved about 110 battalion-tactical groups in the war. These are 160,000 personnel, slightly more than a thousand tanks, about 250 armored fighting vehicles, almost 1,500 units of barrel artillery, more than 600 self-propelled guns and 60 operational-tactical complexes.

Russian army does not have time to form stable defense lines in the Kharkiv region

Ukrainian forces make progress along the border of Kharkiv and Luhansk regions. In particular, fighting continues south of the Oskil river near Kupyansk. Russia tried to use this river as a defensive barrier, but the troops in this direction do not have time to form stable defense lines. There are also successes to the northwest of Lyman. These are data from the Russian public, we are waiting for official information from the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The Ukrainian army has established control over the settlements of Karpivka, Ridkodub and Nove. Also, our troops move towards Svatovo, and as the Russian public panicily assesses, in the event of the withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to Svatovo, the entire Luhansk group may find itself in operational encirclement. Now the Russian enemy abandons all reserves to hold both Lyman and Yampil.

Russian troops try to advance on Bakhmut from several directions and push through Ukrainian forces from Donetsk. Russian enemy had already entered the suburban area of ​​Bakhmut, but later Ukrainian military men regained their lost positions. As the Ukrainian Armed Forces' General Staff regularly reports, the enemy is suffering significant losses in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka directions. Ukrainian Armed Forces hold their defense despite intense Russian shelling.

Russian occupiers deployed two groups in the Melitopol and Mariupol directions

There are two components in the South. On the one hand, there are changes in Russian forces in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions. According to information from the Information Resistance community, Russian enemy has completed the deployment of two powerful tactical groups in the Melitopol and Mariupol directions. The first is 9 BTG in the triangle Vasylivka - Pology - Tokmak, and the second - up to 5 BTG in the Staromayorske - Makarivka - Urozhane area. These are new formations to protect themselves from attacks from the Ukrainian side or even to resort to counterattacks themselves.

Ukrainian Armed Forces strike the railway connection with Crimea in the Kherson region

On the right bank of the Dnipro river in the Kherson region, the defense from Oleksandrivka to Zolota Balka is held by about 35 Russian BTGs, which are almost trapped due to supply problems. Now this Russian group is cut off from the main forces of the Russian army. The Operational Command "South" regularly informs about the shellings both on the right bank and in the deep rear. We are talking about strikes on the crossings in Nova Kakhovka, the Antonivskyi bridge, on objects in the Berislavskyi district, and even on Russian positions in the Henichesk district. The latest is strikes on the railway connection with Crimea, which is a bridgehead for refueling Russian troops in the Kherson region. This fiery influence clearly defines the prospects - destruction or escape.

The leadership of Russia's army has already matured to start and conduct an organized withdrawal from the right bank and save equipment and soldiers in the event of a large-scale offensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Kherson. However, as NYT wrote with the reference to the citing sources in the intelligence and administration of the US president, Putin rejected the request of his commanders to withdraw his troops to the left bank of the Dnipro river, because such a retreat would be a humiliating admission of defeat for him. Especially against the background of the panic retreat of the troops in the Kharkiv region. It is clear that Russian defense on the right bank will evaporate under the blows of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Changes in the Russian Ministry of Defense and the chaos of Russian mobilization

Against the backdrop of defeats, Putin begins to intervene more actively in military operations. And there are changes in the Ministry of Defense at the level of Deputy Minister for Logistics - Mykhailo Mizintsev was appointed to this position. He is called the "butcher of Mariupol" because he exercised control and issued orders to bombard the city. In addition, it is worth saying that in the intercepted conversations he called the Russian military "bastards" and "shitholes". We understand what kind of generals rule the Russian army, so we are not surprised by the cases that the mobilized do not receive clothes and everyone knows the video when "mobs" are handed rusty assault rifles and they say: "You will serve on tanks, why do you need these assault rifles."  This shows the chaos that has accompanied the Russian mobilization for four days.