Situation at Zaporizhzhia NPP: details regarding possible terrorist attack

Espreso has compiled essential information regarding how to respond to a man-made disaster, world leaders' reactions, and the potential consequences to be mindful of.

What you should know about the Zaporizhzhia NPP

The Zaporizhzhia NPP is located near the city of Enerhodar. Its construction was completed in the 1980s. It comprises 6 nuclear power units, each with a capacity of 1 million kW. The plant annually generates approximately one-fifth of Ukraine's electricity, which is equivalent to half of the total electricity produced by Ukrainian NPPs.

On March 4, 2022, the nuclear and thermal power plant was seized by Russian occupying troops during the battle for the city. ZNPP was shelled, resulting in damage to many facilities on its territory. On March 12, Rosatom, Russia’s state atomic energy corporation, took control of the nuclear power plant. Last year in July, Russian forces transported heavy military equipment, ammunition, weapons, and explosives to the engine room of Unit 1. 

In May of the current year, it was revealed that they had planted explosives in the turbine room of the 4th power unit. Presently, the entire area, under the control of approximately 500 armed militants from the Russian army, is filled with explosives.

How likely is the disaster at the ZNPP?

The situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant became even more threatening in June 2023 when Russian occupying forces destroyed the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant.

"The Zaporizhzhia NPP relies on water from the Kakhovka Reservoir for supplying power to turbine condensers and for the safety systems of the plant," Energoatom, Ukraine's nuclear power state enterprise, explained.

On June 9, 2023, due to a drop in water levels caused by the explosion of the Kakhovka HPP by Russian troops, the State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate of Ukraine ordered Energoatom to put ZNPP Unit 5 into cold shutdown. The other power units had already been placed in this mode earlier.

According to Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence, Russian troops have also planted explosives on the cooler of the ZNPP. Its detonation may cause an explosion or accident. 

A few days later, the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy revealed that 4 power units and the cooler of the Zaporizhzhia NPP were mined. Zelenskyy stated that Russia was contemplating a terrorist attack scenario that could result in a release of radiation. He emphasized the grave consequences, warning that an explosion at the Zaporizhzhia NPP could potentially trigger the most significant man-made disaster in history.

According to the latest information from Ukrainian intelligence, Russia has completed preparations for a terrorist attack at the Zaporizhzhia NPP, having placed equipment with explosives at 4 of the 6 power units. In the event of an explosion in the cooler, the nuclear reactors could potentially melt down within a period of 10 hours to 14 days.

On July 4, the Ukrainian Armed Forces reported that Russia was preparing a terrorist attack in the near future. They discovered objects resembling explosive devices placed on the outer roof of Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant units 3 and 4. 

"The plan for a terrorist attack on ZNPP is fully developed and approved. They can use technical means to accelerate the disaster," said Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence, in an interview with the New Statement.

The concerns of Ukrainians and the international community are substantiated by reports of Russians removing documentation from the ZNPP and urging workers to evacuate. It has been confirmed that a significant number of workers have already left the plant. 

Will international organizations help?

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) was established in 1957 to promote the peaceful use of nuclear energy and prevent its use for any military purposes. Representatives of the organization have repeatedly visited ZNPP with inspections. However, the Office of the President of Ukraine has criticized the effectiveness and competence of the IAEA, stating that the agency has been unable to address the critical situation in Enerhodar adequately.

Photo: Reuters

On June 15, the IAEA Director General, Rafael Grossi, conducted the 9th rotation of the ISAMZ mission at ZNPP, marking his third visit to the facility. According to the official report, the plant's cooling system is currently supported by water from the outlet channel of the neighboring Zaporizhzhia Thermal Power Plant, which supplies the splash pools that cool the 6 shutdown reactors and spent fuel. It also maintains a full separate cooling pool, mainly compensating for evaporation. Despite the disappearance of the Kakhovka reservoir, the diversion canal and the cooling pond can provide cooling for several months. Additionally, the plant can access extra cooling water from its underground water supply system and its own wells. The latest IAEA report, dated July 4, mentions no threats to Zaporizhzhia NPP; the only issue reported is the disconnection of the plant's power line.

How can a catastrophe be avoided?

The situation at the Zaporizhzhia NPP can only be resolved by the complete withdrawal of Russian troops and equipment, the EU said during a meeting of the OSCE Permanent Council in Vienna on March 2 this year.

At the same time, Energoatom President Petro Kotin believes that the most likely scenario for the liberation of the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia NPP is its encirclement by Ukrainian troops. "No one is going to attack the ZNPP. I think it will be the encirclement of the plant. And at a very large distance from the plant. After that, Russian forces will leave it. Because virtually all the rest of the territory around it will be controlled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This is the only scenario I can imagine. There can be no other scenario," he said.

An analytical report by the Institute for the Study of War dated June 23 states that in the event of a terrorist attack in Enerhodar, Russian occupying forces will not be able to control its consequences. By signaling preparations for sabotage at the plant, Russia is likely trying to force the Ukrainian Armed Forces to abandon counteroffensive operations in the area.

A deliberate radiation incident could also leave many areas in the occupied southern Ukraine uninhabitable, thereby hindering Russia's efforts to solidify its occupation of the region, the Institute believes.

What are the possible consequences of a nuclear disaster at the ZNPP?

According to scientists and analysts, there is a significant possibility of an apocalyptic scenario unfolding in Ukraine. An accident at ZNPP could affect 40 countries and 1 billion people. 

Former head of the State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate of Ukraine, Hryhoriy Plachkov, warns that the melting of reactor cores is a potential outcome. In the worst-case scenario, if there is insufficient power and water to cool the fuel, it could lead to the melting of both the fuel and the reactor core itself.

Rob Bauer, the head of the NATO Military Committee, believes that the consequences of the ZNPP explosion will be felt by the whole world. He spoke about this in an interview with the LBC radio station.

"If this would happen - if this would happen - then it is a much bigger problem than just a military problem or something only for NATO. This is something that the world will be involved in, this will have an enormous impact in Europe," Bauer explained and added that it is an environmental disaster and a medical problem. 

According to experts, the potential consequences of a nuclear disaster in Ukraine could be 10 times more severe than the Chornobyl incident. If an accident were to occur, significant amounts of radioactive cesium-137 could be released, posing a significant risk to human health. The projected area of the potential exclusion zone could extend up to 30,000 square kilometers.

Publicist Vitaly Portnikov, speaking on Espreso TV, holds a different viewpoint regarding the situation at the ZNPP. He argues that a significant explosion is unlikely to occur at the plant and asserts that the events unfolding there cannot be equated to the magnitude of the Chornobyl or Fukushima disasters.

"The maximum that can be done at the Zaporizhzhia NPP is to ensure that the radiation zone is within the territory of the nuclear power plant itself. There will be no large radiation zone, as depicted by various outlets. There are no massive threats, and there will be no release of radioactive iodine, even if the occupiers blow up everything," suggests Vitaly Portnikov. 

Mykola Steinberg, former chief engineer of the Chornobyl nuclear power plant, does not expect serious consequences. He believes that Russia’s criminal actions at the plant will not cause a catastrophe like the one associated with the explosion or overclocking of the nuclear reactor.

"I believe that all countries are monitoring the situation, not only Ukraine's neighbors. Modern equipment allows us to detect the slightest deviations from the norm, and everyone will know and see it. There will be no serious emissions, but everyone should still be prepared. I should note that I do not expect any serious consequences. The discharge of part of the radiation activity along the Dnipro riverbed may be more sensitive, but there will not be large volumes there either," said the former Deputy Minister of Fuel and Energy of Ukraine.

Retired US Army Major and military expert John Spencer believes that in the event of a nuclear catastrophe, NATO would invoke Article Five.

"I was pleased to see that American leaders are speaking out publicly and calling Putin a global terrorist. If Putin really causes a nuclear catastrophe, if he uses nuclear weapons, the consequences will not be long in coming. NATO will invoke Article Five and there will be an immediate reaction, because Putin and his generals must understand the consequences of such actions. Putin is well aware that in either of these 2 scenarios: the use of tactical nuclear weapons or a nuclear disaster at the ZNPP, his regime will end," he said.

The same opinion was expressed by General and former Commander of the US Army in Europe Ben Hodges: the consequences will not be long in coming, NATO will invoke Article Five and there will be an immediate reaction.

"The Kremlin leadership realizes that it will pay a huge price if it dares to take such a radical step," he said.

What to do in case of a disaster at the Zaporizhzhia NPP?

Amid news of a possible explosion at the plant, Ukrainians rushed to buy potassium iodide. The Ministry of Health warns against uncontrolled use of this drug.

Survival expert Ihor Molodan offers valuable advice on how to handle radiation contamination and emphasizes the importance of following a specific set of actions rather than succumbing to panic. He believes that even if someone is in close proximity to the epicenter or near a nuclear power plant, it is possible to survive by quickly finding shelter or moving to a safe location. Molodan advises to check the hydrometeorological forecast to determine the direction of the wind. He explains that it takes approximately 20-30 minutes for the radiation cloud to cool down and rise.

It is crucial to avoid exposure to the initial radiation fallout as it poses the greatest danger.

If you are caught in the emergency at home, it is advisable to select a room without windows, such as a bathroom, toilet room, or pantry. All ventilation holes should be covered with a cloth, and any gaps around the front door should be sealed off.

Once inside such a room, it is important to remain there until rescue personnel arrive and provide instructions over loudspeakers. If the decision is made to venture outside, it is essential to protect the eyes, skin, and respiratory system as much as possible from the hazardous environment.

The potential disaster is expected to impact multiple regions. Dmytro Lubinets, Ukraine’s Commissioner for Human Rights, has reported the establishment of separate evacuation headquarters in each region. Plans for evacuating people within a radius of 30 to 50 kilometers from the affected areas have been developed and prepared.