Russian army unlikely to encircle Bakhmut in near future - ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported this. 

Experts argued that Russian progress in Bakhmut has been slow and gradual and does not mean that Russian troops will soon be able to surround the city, let alone take it by frontal assault. Rather, the Russian forces have managed to advance close enough to critical land lines of communication from the northeast to threaten Ukrainian escape routes in a classic pivot.

“The purpose of a turning movement is to force the enemy to abandon prepared defensive positions and is different from the aim of an encirclement, which is to trap and destroy enemy forces. The Russians may have intended to encircle Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut, but the Ukrainian command has signaled that it will likely withdraw rather than risk an encirclement,” the ISW reported. 

In particular, ISW assessed that Ukrainian forces have a much better chance of withdrawing than being surrounded, and that the AFU could still hold their positions in Bakhmut if the command decided to try.

• As a reminder, NSDC Secretary Danilov said that the situation in Bakhmut is extremely difficult but under control.

• Military experts are convinced that Bakhmut has fulfilled its objectives and we can withdraw. And the Institute for the Study of War reported that Ukrainian forces are probably preparing for a controlled withdrawal from some areas of Bakhmut.

• Viktor Khorenko, the commander of the AFU's Special Operations Forces, visited Bakhmut to check the work of his units, reporting that the tasks were being performed accurately.

• Serhii Cherevatyi, spokesman for the Eastern Group of Forces, said that despite the invaders' blowing up the bridge connecting Bakhmut to the village of Khromove, the Defense Forces will rebuild their defenses and resist.