The claim that Putin wants negotiations is illogical

They say that the Russian dictator can already tell his people that he has saved the "young republics," that he has cut a land corridor to Crimea, and that the Western Ukrainian nuclear power plant can now supply all the occupied territories with energy. And even mobilization will not help him much, because we have destroyed a lot of Russian equipment...

I strongly believe that Putin can create a parallel reality.

But I categorically do not believe that he wants negotiations that will narrow his strategic maneuver. And this is not just about Ukraine. If we recall Putin's famous Munich speech (Munich was mentioned in passing in the interview), Moscow's goal is not just to destabilize the situation in the region, but to restore its dominant role in the countries of the former Warsaw Pact.

Putin wants recognition and obedience, he wants to influence a part of the world and sit next to the US president and the Chinese leader. To run the world order together "in the new realities," as he often says.

From this point of view, Putin does not need any negotiations in the near future (especially before the winner is determined in the White House). Moreover, it is possible that Russia will try to escalate the situation even further during the fiercest political confrontation in the United States, reducing the current democratic administration's chances of winning and squeezing the rapid response mechanisms during the presidential campaign.

And next year, Putin is likely to send messengers to arrange a bilateral, and possibly trilateral, meeting in the Russia-US-China format. In order to consolidate his tactical successes and talk about expanding his influence to parts of Europe, including Ukraine.

Ultimately, the correlation of this scenario depends on whether (and how) the West understands it, and whether they are ready to help us (and themselves) break this scenario.

This is how, in short, I see the development of events in the coming year.

That is why the words "Putin is sending signals about negotiations" look illogical to me, at the very least. Especially coming from an experienced Ukrainian diplomat whom I have known for 20 years, if not more.

But let's see in 2025 whose theory was closer to reality.

Source

About the author. Viktor Shlinchak, Chairman of the Board of the Institute of World Policy, Head of the Glavkom news agency.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.