Russia yet to launch major counteroffensive to drive Ukraine out of Kursk region - ISW

This is stated in the ISW report.

The Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk region has reportedly disrupted planned Russian offensive operations along the international border area that likely aimed to expand the area of active combat operations across a broader front in northeastern Ukraine. On September 13, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that the Ukrainian operation in the Kursk region had stopped Russia's plans to create several buffer zones along the Ukrainian border “from east to north,” including in the Sumy region.

Zelenskyy's statement indicates that Russian troops were planning to launch new offensive operations aimed at penetrating at least 25 kilometers deep into the Sumy and Kharkiv regions and intensifying their activities on a much wider front between the cities of Sumy and Kharkiv.

Earlier, the ISW assessed that the Russian offensive operation in northern Kharkiv Oblast aimed to fix Ukrainian manpower and materiel along the northern border, granting Russian forces opportunities to re-intensify offensive operations in other higher-priority areas of the theater. Military experts believe that Ukrainian forces have largely stabilized the frontline in the Kharkiv direction since the summer of 2023 and continue to contest the tactical initiative through counterattacks that have regained limited positions in the northern Kharkiv region. The Russian military command may have intended additional offensive operations along a wider and more continuous front in northeastern Ukraine to significantly stretch Ukrainian forces along the international border following the Ukrainian stabilization of the frontline north and northeast of Kharkiv, analysts said.

Zelenskyy noted that the Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk region also affected Russia's offensive operations in the Donetsk region, in particular, “slowing down” the Russian advance across the Donetsk region and reducing the artillery ammunition advantage that Russian forces had in the Pokrovsk direction over Ukrainian forces.

ISW has recently observed indications that Russian authorities have transferred limited elements of likely Russian reserve units from the Donetsk region, including from the Pokrovsk direction, to the Kursk region to counter the Ukrainian incursion. Such limited redeployments are unlikely to have an immediate impact on the tempo of Russian offensive operations, although Russian forces may struggle to maintain their current offensive tempo in the future if Russian authorities conduct additional redeployments from reserve forces in the Donetsk region.

Russian forces continue to counterattack throughout the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast, but the Russian military will likely have to redeploy additional elements from elsewhere in the theater to the Kursk region to establish a force grouping capable of pursuing a sustained counteroffensive operation. ISW has not yet observed any large-scale fighting indicating that Russian forces have launched a large-scale coordinated counteroffensive operation aimed at completely driving Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk region.

It is noted that the Russian authorities have relied heavily on poorly trained and equipped conscripts and small elements of Russian regular and irregular forces to counter the Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk region, and it is unlikely that the majority of the current Russian force grouping in the Kursk region consists of combat-experienced units.

“A Russian counteroffensive operation to retake territory seized by Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast will very likely require even more manpower and materiel than Russia has already concentrated in the area — especially if most of the already committed units lack combat experience. Russian Airborne (VDV) forces that recently redeployed to Kursk Oblast from the frontline in Ukraine currently appear to be heavily responsible for counterattacks in Kursk Oblast, suggesting that the Russian military command may intend to field units perceived to be more 'elite' or combat effective to regain territory. The Russian military will most certainly have to redeploy units already committed to ongoing offensive operations or operational reserves from Ukraine to Kursk Oblast in order to field the combat-effective units needed for a large counteroffensive operation and then subsequently guard the international border against future Ukrainian incursions,” the analysts said.

• President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Russia is seeking to bring 60-70 thousand of its troops to the Kursk region. According to him, Russia has launched a rapid offensive there, but has not had any serious success.