Orbán's mediation mission in Ukraine war is "meaningless" - Hungarian political scientist

He outlines three reasons for this, as cited by Hungarian media outlet Telex.

According to the lecturer, both sides are confident they can win on the battlefield at this stage of the war. The Russian leadership believes it can outlast Western support for Ukraine with its manpower and munitions, while the Ukrainian leadership is confident in continuously weakening the Russian army with ongoing support. The American presidential election could change attitudes toward Ukraine, but the new president won't be in office until January.

"Even if a new American administration tries to force the warring parties to make peace, it can't begin until January of next year. Unless something completely unexpected happens, like a dramatic event, the war's next six months will be shaped by current trends, not the will of a new American administration. This period extends well beyond the Hungarian EU presidency's mandate, which ends in December," Rácz writes.

"In other words, Viktor Orbán can leverage the visibility of the EU presidency all he wants, but it won't significantly affect the war's course in the next six months," he added.

Rácz argues that Orbán's peace mission is also meaningless because he has no concrete peace plan. "Immediate ceasefire, now!" is just an empty slogan. Its only real effect would be legitimizing Russian territorial gains. Orbán has not presented a consistent plan, having expressed different positions at various stages of his "peace mission." In Moscow, he couldn't present his ideas since Putin is firm on ending the war on Russia's terms. In Ukraine, Orbán mentioned a phased ceasefire, and in Beijing, he praised the Chinese settlement plan.

"Moreover, Orbán has no mandate to mediate. None of the warring parties asked him to mediate. He doesn't represent the European Union or NATO," Rácz writes. He questions whether Orbán truly initiated meetings with Putin and Xi Jinping or was assigned by Putin to these meetings, suggesting Orbán couldn't refuse.

Rácz also refutes the notion that only Orbán can mediate between the countries. Turkey’s President Erdoğan, for instance, frequently mediates in significant matters like grain agreements and prisoner exchanges. The Chinese leadership also communicates regularly with Moscow and Kyiv.