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Is Zelenskyy's Peace Formula being replaced by Erdogan-Guterres Formula?

22 June, 2024 Saturday
18:47

After the Swiss conference, which was actually called the Peace Summit in Ukraine (and not the Global Peace Summit), several representatives of the Ukrainian government said that they wanted to see Russia at the second summit

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Even on the day of the summit, both the president and the foreign minister spoke on this topic. The day before yesterday, Yermak made a statement, and yesterday our ambassador to Singapore made a statement.

And on the air of the United News telethon, Foreign Minister Kuleba hinted that Russia's participation in the second Peace Summit could be based on the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

So, does it seem that the second (non)grain deal is coming? Now about the freeze. The only question is whether the enemy will agree to it.

"Is Zelenskyy's Peace Formula being replaced by the Erdogan-Guterres Formula? I doubt it. Who can communicate clearly and guarantee something to Ukraine and Russia at the same time?"

Everyone is nodding towards Saudi Arabia as the likely host of the second summit. But this is not a guarantee.

The UN can stay for the sake of formality, and Turkey can only control the straits from the Black Sea, but not the intensity of the fighting on land. So no.

The real guarantors of such negotiations can be (or be perceived to be) China for Russia and the United States for Ukraine. And this is a global level. So, perhaps, not now. At best, after the US elections.

And yes, this is a dramatic change in Ukraine's negotiating position. It has nothing to do with the Russians and Putin - that's right. But this is a way to freeze the conflict, not to resolve it.

Could this be a bluff on our part to show the enemy's lack of negotiating skills? Maybe, but it would be strange. The Russian leadership demonstrates its lack of negotiating skills on a regular basis. I hope it will not let us down this time.

Source

About the author. Volodymyr Horbach, political analyst at the Institute for Euro-Atlantic Cooperation, expert on foreign and domestic policy of Ukraine.

The editors do not always share the views expressed by the authors of the blogs.

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