North does not pose any threat: no strike groups formations from either Belarusians or Wagner. Serhiy Zgurets’ column

Month of Ukrainian counteroffensive 

Now let's talk about the results of the past week and month. On June 4, the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched an offensive in the southern region. They formed new brigades and gathered weapons and ammunition, although they still don't have everything they need. The offensive is happening in different directions, without a clear focus on a main target. This has caught the Russian Federation off guard in the south, making them scramble for 260 kilometers. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are using a hybrid model of operations. They combine elements of the American doctrine with integrated military operations, but without air support, which the USA typically includes. They also incorporate aspects of the Soviet concept with a significant use of artillery, requiring a large amount of ammunition. On the ground, the Ukrainian units have improved their tactics, especially in the actions of assault groups ranging from company to battalion level. These groups advance in close cooperation with demining equipment and sappers. We are witnessing these tactics successfully breaking through the enemy's strong defenses.

Currently, there is an ongoing offensive in the south with varying outcomes in different areas. Our troops advanced the most near Velyka Novosilka, Berdiansk sector: 12 kilometers in the direction of Staromlynivka, freeing Rivnopil and several other settlements in the area. From Orikhiv to Tokmak and Melitopol, our troops have advanced by 8-10 km. Starting from Robotyne, the main line of fortified defenses of the Russian Federation begins, equipped with mines and obstacles known as "dragon's teeth." It is expected that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will soon reach the first positions of the enemy's main defense line in the south in the Robotyne area.

Measuring the progress in kilometers can be both meaningful and not. Some distances of just 1 km may take months or weeks to break through, while further behind the defense line, there are dozens of kilometers that can be covered in a day. The first kilometers are the most challenging for our forces. Currently, the Russian Federation is holding a defensive position between the forward and main lines of defense, which are about 30 km apart from each other. The Russian Federation is attempting to follow a strategy of maintaining stronghold lines, then retreating under pressure from our Defense Forces, reinforcing with reserves, and launching counterattacks.

So far, the Russian Federation's defense line is holding, but there are calculations indicating that they are depleting their forces, resources, and reserves faster than we are. This is supported by statistical data.

In June, a record number of 633 artillery systems and mortars of different sizes were destroyed. It is currently hard to predict where the enemy's defenses will weaken on the Zaporizhzhia front. When that happens, it will become the main focus for the Armed Forces. 

Ukraine still has a significant reserve of potential for future actions. The main defense forces, like the brigades trained in the West, have not yet been fully engaged in combat or are only partially involved. As for the speed of our advance, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, in an interview with The Washington Post, mentioned that many people have high expectations for a counteroffensive. However, despite supply problems, the Defense Forces continue to advance, even if it's just by 500 meters. He emphasized that we need more ammunition, artillery, aviation, and F-16s to reduce losses on the battlefield and achieve better results.

The interview was followed by a response from Mark Milley, who has actual combat experience, responded to questions about the counteroffensive. He expressed that he is not worried about the slower pace, as he had previously mentioned that it could take 6-10 weeks and be very challenging, long, and bloody. He emphasized that no one should have any illusions, as Ukraine is fighting for its life and the military is doing their best to advance through difficult sections of the front under these circumstances. According to him, this is an essential aspect of the war in the South. The speed of our advancement will depend on support, intelligence work, tactical coordination, and actions in challenging situations against the enemy's highly fortified lines.

Viktor Kevlyuk, a defense expert from the Center for Defense Strategies, pointed out that Ukraine is striving to be modern and proactive, utilizing the advancements of recent decades. However, they are facing an enemy that employs tactics reminiscent of the First World War, such as solid defensive lines, extensive use of landmines, and heavy reliance on engineering barriers. These factors significantly impact Ukraine's progress.

The Russian Federation's defense is composed of three lines. Ukrainian units tried to overcome the first line of defense with limited forces and advanced units, mainly in the Melitopol and Berdiansk directions. There are also smaller areas where the Defense Forces concentrate their efforts. In Melitopol, the fighting is ongoing in two main tactical areas. The Russian Federation is attempting to hold Robotyne and Verbove to prevent the Defense Forces from advancing further. In the Tokmak direction, the enemy has established two defense echelons. It is worth noting that the Russian garrison in Novopokrovka fled as the AFU approached, requiring the deployment of units from the 45th separate mechanized brigade. Special forces are being employed as infantry. The Russian Federation is facing challenges in terms of reserves and troops that can maintain a stable defense. The enemy's 417th reconnaissance battalion is defending Verbove, but it is not performing as intended. Resources are limited.

The situation in the Vasylivka direction is becoming increasingly disturbing for Russia. Ukrainian units have advanced to Zherebyanky and are operating in the Kamianske area. The Russian Federation is at risk of losing Vasylivka, which would lead to the collapse of their left flank in defense and open up the path for an advance towards Kherson along the Dnipro River. The Russian group threatening to unleash a nuclear explosion in Enerhodar finds itself surrounded. The 810th marine brigade has been deployed to the Vasylivka district. This unit has been reactivated three times. Near Mariupol, a brigadier general, the deputy commander responsible for personnel, was killed while attempting an attack. The brigade was then deployed near Vasylivka from the operational reserve. The Russian Federation is aware of the threat and is making efforts to counter it.

Enemy reserves in the east of Ukraine

The enemy's reserves in eastern Ukraine are organized in three lines. The first line consists of the Russian Armed Forces, the second line has regular troops, mobilized and territorial troops, and the third line includes other forces, but they are not as densely positioned. The adversary hasn't decided where to focus their main attacks, so they are using up their tactical reserves to fill gaps in their defenses. The Russian Federation is withdrawing some units, such as the 810th brigade and the 5th tank brigade from Ulan-Ude, which are preparing for counterattacks, as well as the 45th and 22nd brigades. In the Bakhmut direction, there is a brief pause as the enemy regroups to the north and south. The Russian Federation has brought in reserves from the southern direction, specifically the 11th and 31st brigades, but their capabilities are not comparable to the motorized rifle units. The enemy has managed to advance their Defense Forces near Berkhivka, and they are attempting to consolidate their position there. However, Ukrainian troops, especially the 3rd separate assault brigade, are active in the area. North of Bakhmut, there is the Siversky ledge, which poses a threat to the Russian Federation as our troops could quickly break through to Popasna and Lysychansk. By achieving success in the Bakhmut area, our Defense Force creates a potential encirclement of the enemy garrison there. The situation on the Siversky ledge is also concerning for the enemy. If we succeed in both directions, it will be very unfavorable for them.

Situation in the northern direction 

The situation in northern Ukraine is currently not dangerous. There are no large groups of fighters from Belarus or Wagner Group. The Wagner Group is a specific military force that operates in segments. Their funding comes from Africa, and it is unlikely they will leave that area. Recently, the president of the Central African Republic requested a replacement from Prigozhin if the Wagner Group were to leave, as they appreciate their role in maintaining stability. In Bakhmut, there are several Russian PMC units involved in combat.