NATO was created to counter the Soviet threat. The threat has disappeared…

I have no expectations about the NATO Summit. Because at the heart of everything that is happening is one big fundamental uncertainty: the future of Northern Eurasia. The United States and Europe do not know what to do with Russia.

“They no longer believe in democracy in Russia (I hope), they are afraid of autocracy (because it means war and the rise of China), they are even more afraid of collapse (because it means chaos and the rise of China), and they do not agree to decolonization (yet).”

And as long as this great uncertainty exists, as long as there is no picture of the post-war world, the war will not end completely. And until the war is finally over, NATO will not join it as a full participant. So, Ukrainian prospects will be sincere, generous, but vague promises.

Of course, there are other important factors:

• Domestic political uncertainty in the United States (it's not just about party competition, but also about the balance between domestic and foreign affairs).

• The uncertainty of the balance between the US and Europe within NATO itself (Europe is used to doing less and getting more).

• Ukraine's unfulfilled homework (no one wants a big country with a big army and an unstable democracy).

• Turkish ambitions that go far beyond the previous decades.

• Hungarian opportunism, from which everyone is tired but does not know how to counter.

• German uncertainty about how steep the Zeitenwende (turn of the century) will be, and the confrontation between supporters of a steep and a soft turn.

• The general crisis of global institutions, which no one knows how to manage.

But the main uncertainty is the fate of Russia and the picture of the postwar world. NATO was created to confront the Soviet threat, then the threat disappeared, NATO relaxed and dissipated, and now we have to determine what the next 50 years will look like. There is no common picture, so there are no expectations yet.

But over time, the picture will be sharpened, and then we will get clear answers.

Source

About the author. Valeriy Pekar, lecturer at the Kyiv-Mohyla Academy.

The editorial staff do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.