Russian troops regain initiative on battlefield and ready for offensive operations - ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) report states.

The analysts cite President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who said the day before that Russia was preparing a new offensive that would begin in late May or summer 2024. Zelenskyy also added that the Ukrainian military has a clear plan to counter Russian troops.

At the same time, the ISW continues to assess that Russian forces regained the initiative across the theater following Ukraine’s summer 2023 counteroffensive.

In addition, it is noted that Russia is likely to be able to independently determine the time, location, and scale of future offensive operations in Ukraine.

Analysts suggest that Russian troops will be able to maneuver reserve concentrations and determine how and where to allocate resources while forcing Ukraine to respond defensively as long as Russia maintains the strategic initiative. 

"Ukrainian forces could deny Russia these opportunities if Ukrainian forces have enough means to challenge the Russian initiative and pursue their own offensive operations in 2024," the report says.

• A day earlier, Dmytro Lykhoviy, a spokesman for the Tavria group of troops, said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had withdrawn from the village of Lastochkyno, located 6 km from the temporarily occupied Avdiivka in Donetsk region, and were reinforcing the defense line to prevent the Russian forces from advancing.

• Russia is currently attempting to advance toward the village of Orlivka from three directions, but is unsuccessful. Russian aviation and artillery are turning fortifications and villages into ruins, so sometimes the Ukrainian Armed Forces are forced to withdraw.