How will Russian missile attack on Poland affect air defense supply to Ukraine

A missile attack on Poland is more than a deliberate thing.

The main reason for strike: to show his people that collective action is cowards who will not be able to respond to direct strike on their territory. Second important reason is the blackmail of the West to force negotiations. I will allow myself to express my own opinion: if there were no statements by high-ranking American officials about the expediency of negotiations, there would be no such blow. Putin always perceived these statements as weakness.

This strike is needed by the Russian Federation right now, when Russians left Kherson and at the same time received a hard slap from China and the USA, which jointly forbade them to blackmail Ukraine and the world with nuclear weapons. Russian people are simply happy about it. The attack on a farm in Poland and the loss of Kherson are more than relevant for Russians.

NATO will hold consultations that will not end in anything significant. Russians will shout from their irons about frightened West and demand negotiations without preconditions.

I think that with this blow, Russians did not bring closer, but moved away from negotiations they needed. Therefore, unfortunately, similar provocations cannot be ruled out in the future (it is not ruled out that they will also take place on the territory of Belarus). Russians are once again trying to primitively raise the stakes. But such second blow with high degree of probability will push away even ghostly negotiations. Although it will not force the West to start sending its troops to Ukraine.

But now, the security of NATO itself depends on the supply of air defense.

About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.