‘Finlandization’ of Ukraine continues

And this is a plus. It's actually the best we could get right now. It's just that if we proceed from realities, not from desires and magical thinking. 

So the ‘Finlandization’ of Ukraine continues. And it seems that we could give ourselves a plus point and move on.

But there is 'treason' in Ukraine. This is a very strange narrative that is being actively spread. And it's not clear whether the Russians are promoting the demotivating messages or whether Ukrainians have enough sense on their own.

"So, the standpoint is being actively promoted that this is a very bad decision, because now Putin will definitely never agree to end the war, because he does not want to see Ukraine in NATO. This is a very manipulative message, and it seems to be obvious at first glance. But it only seems so. And it needs to be explained."

People who promote these messages probably did not ask themselves the question: what decision should NATO make based on this logic? What decision should NATO make that would help end the war?

And please do not offer the version of Ukraine joining NATO right now. It is impossible. No one will buy a ticket to World War III. No one wants to escalate and enter into a war with Russia. At least not politicians. American generals may be dreaming of destroying the entire remaining power of the Russian army in 3 days, but politicians will never play with the risk of nuclear war. We may or may not like it, but it is a fact. And it is about responsibility.

"That is, you do not have this solution on your desk. What do the adherents of the unexpected ‘treason’ propose? What should bring the end of the war closer? It seems that, according to them, NATO should declare that it will never accept Ukraine. Then Putin would have no reason to drag out the war. And then he will end it immediately."

Are you serious? Are you suggesting this? Is anyone hoping for this? Does anyone believe in this scenario? Does anyone think that this will have a calming effect on Putin, and not be a sign of weakness for him?

And if not, what are these ideas about? Why link Russia's war against Ukraine to NATO membership? Putin will fight as long as he has the ability to fight. And the war will end only when he realizes that war is more threatening to his personal survival than peace. That's it. Whether or not Ukraine joins NATO after the war plays no role here. This fact does not add anything new to Putin's equation.

"The West is exhausting Putin and Russia, and the longer the war goes on, the more fragile the situation in Russia will become. That is why no one will continue the war at a minimum, which has minimal impact on Ukraine and a major impact on the Russian economy and Putin's power. Ukraine's accession to NATO is not the main meaning of Putin's life, and it does not determine the behavior of the Russian dictator."

But the key here is that the very fact of linking the end of the war to the decision on NATO is a manipulation. This decision has a symbolic meaning. And it is important, including for our European integration. And the way the Russians are actively discrediting this step shows once again that they are very unhappy with it.

And finally. NATO is an excuse, not a reason. Finland joined NATO and Putin did not die. So Ukraine's accession to NATO will not activate any secret buttons to destroy Russia. Putin attacked Ukraine because he wanted to restore his empire and take over Ukraine. That's all. And he used the pretext of NATO expansion. Which was never the real reason. And, therefore, it will never be.

Source

About the author. Serhiy Fursa, investment expert, blogger.

The editors don't always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.