British intelligence suggests worst time for offensive

This is reported by the military intelligence of the British Ministry of Defenсe. 

It is noted that the weather still plays a significant role in the course of Russia's war in Ukraine. With the ground frozen, there has likely been little change in cross country mobility conditions in eastern Ukraine in recent weeks.

At the same time, on 8 February 2023, surface temperatures were around 0 degrees Celsius; over the coming week, forecasts suggest soil temperature increases and snow melt are likely to deteriorate cross country mobility across the Donbas.

British intelligence suggests that troop movement conditions are likely to be at their worst due to heavy mud in mid-to-late March. Therefore, commanders on both sides will likely try to avoid planning major offensives at this time.

However, Intel suggests that perceived political or operational opportunities can override such concerns, as demonstrated by Russia launching its invasion in late-February 2022.

• On February 6, the Financial Times wrote that Russia intends to launch another large-scale offensive to seize Donbas within the next 10 days. The Russian Federation is also building up its troops in the Donetsk region, sending additional forces to the Mariupol area.