Battle of Avdiivka will destroy Putin's new strategy
In our war with the invading Russian forces, the importance of battles is often determined not by geographic location or strategic importance to the front, but rather by strategic importance in the war
When the enemy turns something into a hyper-important thing for them, gives it great significance, it automatically becomes so for us.
“Since Avdiivka is defined as a key point of the Russian invaders’ efforts and a symbol of the pre-election victory for the nearest period of time, it is also extremely important for us.”
Of course, Avdiivka's importance is determined by many strategic and tactical factors. In particular, its loss would lead to significant losses of territory beyond its borders and pose a threat to new cities. But there is something else that makes Avdiivka very important to us - Putin's new strategy. So, based on the experience of Bakhmut and, possibly, Avdiivka, Putin has concluded that his meaty assaults over 2-3 years will give him what he wants. That is, for him, the approach of marching foot battalions has been successful so far.
I think that Putin's "great strategists" have learned from the experience of Bakhmut and Avdiivka that, on average, they need 40,000 soldiers to capture a town of up to 100,000 people. Today, in addition to Avdiivka, there are 6 settlements in the Donetsk region with populations ranging from 30,000 to 150,000 (Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Myrnohrad, and Pokrovsk). In total, the population of these towns is under 500,000 (nominally). Therefore, Putin needs to deploy 200,000 soldiers to completely capture the Donetsk region, according to these calculations. This is an absolutely acceptable figure, given that 140,000 people die every year in Russia from alcoholism, suicide, murder, and road accidents alone.
“Therefore, the battle for Avdiivka is turning into a battle against Putin's new strategy. If the price for this city is many times higher than these preliminary calculations, or if he fails to achieve what he wants despite the number of dead, this will undermine his new strategy.”
Therefore, without a winning strategy, he will either have to find something new or abandon his plans. Finding something is extremely difficult, given the many other factors that I will write about separately.
Moreover, Putin's defeat near Avdiivka before the elections and the heavy price paid for it will make him weak in Russian society, where moods are seriously beginning to decline.
About the author. Victor Andrusiv, political and public figure, analyst, publicist.
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